IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for June 2023.
While annual home price growth remained near an 11-year low in June, at 1.6%, the gain was slightly higher than in May, indicating that appreciation could be bottoming out. CoreLogic expects year-over-year U.S. home price appreciation to pick up for the rest of 2023 and reach about 7% by early 2024.
Ten states and the District of Columbia posted annual home price declines in June, with some of the largest losses again recorded in the Northwest. However, since Western states are still grappling with a lack of homes for sale, prices in that region are likely to remain elevated over the long term.
“While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending,” said Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “And while higher mortgage rates are impacting affordability for buyers with loans, almost four in 10 sales are all-cash transactions. Also, most baby-boomer homeowners have substantial equity, which could be putting pressure on prices in markets where that generation is currently migrating.”
Top Takeaways:
- U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 1.6% year over year in June 2023 compared with June 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.5% compared with May 2023.
- In June, the annual appreciation of attached properties (2.3%) was 0.9 percentage points higher than that of detached properties (1.4%).
- CoreLogic forecasts show annual U.S. home price gains increasing to 4.3% by June 2024.
- Miami again posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 20 tracked metro areas in June, at 8.9%. Detroit saw the next-highest gain (4.2%), followed by Atlanta (3.9%).
- Among states, New Jersey ranked first for annual appreciation in June (up by 6.9%), followed by New Hampshire and Vermont (both up by 6.4%). Ten states and one district recorded annual home price losses: Idaho (-8%), Washington (-5.8%), Montana (-5.7%), Nevada (-5.3%), Arizona (-4.1%), Utah (-3.8%), Oregon (-2.3%), California (-2.2%), Colorado (-1.8%), Washington, D.C.(-0.6%) and New York (-0.3%).
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring July 2023 data, will be issued on September 5, 2023, at 8 a.m. EST.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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