NEEDHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Declining demand and challenging macro-economic conditions have caused International Data Corporation (IDC) to further lower its forecast for the worldwide PC and tablet markets. Global shipments are now expected to total 403.1 million units in 2023, down from the 429.5 million units forecast in December 2022 by the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. While 2023 volumes will be below 2019 levels, IDC expects 2024 to be a year of recovery with PC and tablet shipments growing 3.6% compared to 2023 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels as total volume reaches 417.7 million units.
The tide had been building toward a market slowdown for some time. With consumers no longer bound by COVID restrictions and commercial backorders for PCs largely completed, the second half of 2022 sent a strong signal that endpoint devices are no longer the focal point and that 2023 will be a time for inventory clearing and shifting priorities.
"Commercial demand, both from businesses and schools, will remain a bright spot throughout the forecast as hybrid work and 1:1 deployments in schools have permanently increased the size of the total addressable market," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "The sunsetting of Windows 10 is expected to drive PC refreshes in 2024 and 2025 while Chromebooks and Android tablets benefit from educational deployments and refreshes. Despite Apple's slow and steady commercial gains in recent quarters, the company's lack of broad adoption among commercial buyers will likely lead to Microsoft- and Google-based platforms outperforming Apple's products over the next two years."
On the consumer front, the strength of the US dollar as well as rising inflation have greatly impacted buying power across the globe. Although the long-term outlook remains positive and above pre-pandemic levels thanks to increased household density of PCs and tablets, the market does risk consumer spending shifting back to smartphones and other purchases.
"This year will be about resiliency for personal computing device vendors," said Linn Huang, research vice president, Devices and Displays. "Surplus inventory, declining demand, and receding macros will continue applying negative pressure on both volumes and ASPs, before returning to growth mode in both departments in the subsequent two years."
Worldwide Personal Computing Device Forecast by Product Category, Shipments, Year-Over-
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Product Category |
2023
|
2023/2022
|
2027
|
2027/2026
|
2023-2027
|
Tablet |
142.3 |
-12.0% |
142.5 |
-0.8% |
0.0% |
Traditional PC |
260.8 |
-10.7% |
292.8 |
1.2% |
2.9% |
Total |
403.1 |
-11.2% |
435.3 |
0.6% |
1.9% |
Source: IDC Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker, March 6, 2023 |
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Notes:
- Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the company/brand under which they are sold.
In addition to the table above, a graphic illustrating IDC's worldwide personal computing device forecast by operating system (Chrome+Android, macOS+iOS, and Windows) is available by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker gathers detailed market data in over 90 countries. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis among other data.
For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 or jkliem@idc.com.
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About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.