Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3545c850/peru_freight_trans) has announced the addition of the "Peru Freight Transport Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.
BMI View We believe the Peruvian economy will decelerate in 2012, a view which has been reinforced by Q211 GDP data. Peru's growth trajectory will be supported by a growing private sector and a likely uptick of public spending in 2012, although uncertainty surrounding the outlook for fiscal expenditure poses risks to our growth projections beyond 2012.
While public expenditure should pick up, we still see private consumption being the main driver of growth as incomes rise and consumer credit becomes more widespread, boosting import volumes at ports. Private consumption grew by 6.4% y-o-y in Q211 and added 4.3 percentage points to the headline growth rate. Thus, consumers do not seem to have been significantly affected by the decline in government spending in Q211. Furthermore, we see strong potential for growth in private consumption 2011 and 2012 as Humala focuses on boosting the disposable income of the poorest segments of Peruvian society.
Headline Industry Data
- We expect growth of 8.6% in total tonnage throughput at the port of Callao, to 20.2mn tonnes.
- We predict air freight volume to increase 8.7%, to 266,000 tonnes in 2012.
- We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow an impressive 8.0%, to 1.3bn tonnes/km in 2012.
Key Industry Trends
Future Looks Bright For Peruvian Ports As They Position Themselves As Gateway To Asia BMI notes upside risk to our forecasts for the Peruvian port of General San Martin, due to the government's announcement that it would concession the port before the end of 2011. BMI believes the port is well placed to take advantage of Asian demand for Peru's natural resources, particularly copper, and as such we expect the concession to attract plenty of international interest.
Peru Aims To Close Port Investment Gap, Improvement Needed Across Freight Sector
Companies Mentioned
- Agunsa
- LAN Cargo
- Ferrocarril Central Andino
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3545c850/peru_freight_trans