IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released data analysis showing 500,000 single-family and multifamily homes in Tampa Bay and Sarasota, Florida metropolitan areas with a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of approximately $123 billion are at potential risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Milton. These figures assume Hurricane Milton makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane and are based on the October 8, 2024, National Hurricane Center 11 a.m. E.T. forecast.
“Hurricane Milton forecasts currently indicate a direct landfall over Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph,” said Jon Schneyer, director of catastrophe response at CoreLogic. “Small changes in the exact landfall location will have monumental consequences on the financial impact of this storm. A direct landfall, or one just north of Tampa Bay, would be a worst-case scenario because the winds and storm surge flooding would be most intense. A more southern landfall would reduce the impact in Tampa Bay but devastate communities along the coast near Sarasota.”
More on the storm surge risk figures
Below is a breakdown of the residential single family and multi-family homes at risk of storm surge damage. As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, its path will become more certain and the below metropolitan areas at risk will narrow. For the most up-to-date storm surge exposure estimates, visit the CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™.
Table 1: Hurricane Milton At-Risk Single Family and Multi-Family Homes and Reconstruction Cost Values
Saffir Simpson Category |
Tampa Metro Area |
Sarasota Metro Area |
Cat. 1 |
161,871 |
63,599 |
Cat. 2 |
250,787 |
101,682 |
Cat. 3 |
341,396 |
159,961 |
Cat. 4 |
448,013 |
254,218 |
Cat. 5 |
541,223 |
301,206 |
Saffir Simpson Category |
Tampa Metro Area
|
Sarasota Metro Area
|
Cat. 1 |
$38,966.7 |
$16,457.2 |
Cat. 2 |
$60,340.9 |
$26,011.4 |
Cat. 3 |
$82,830.6 |
$40,604.4 |
Cat. 4 |
$109,522.3 |
$64,622.8 |
Cat. 5 |
$133,010.2 |
$77,173.9 |
Table 1: Number of homes vulnerable to storm surge by hurricane category and their associated reconstruction value (RCV).
The table above indicates the total number of homes with exposure to storm surge damage given the current path of the storm. RCV figures represent the cost to completely rebuild homes in these areas, which CoreLogic estimates using detailed property characteristic data of each unique home combined with current localized costs of materials, equipment and labor. The calculation does not include the value of the land or lot. The RCV figures assume 100% destruction of all at-risk homes and are not a representation of expected damages.
Hurricane-driven storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure cause water to amass inside the storm, releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves onshore. For a complete view of total storm surge risk for all Atlantic and Gulf Coast states metropolitan areas, download the 2024 CoreLogic Hurricane Risk Report.
Methodology
CoreLogic offers high-resolution location information solutions with a view of hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling using 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding precision from PxPoint™ facilitates this realistic view of risk. Single-family residential structures less than four stories, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other non-traditional home types) are included in this analysis. Multifamily residences are also included. This is not an indication that there will be no damage to other types of structures, as there may be associated wind or debris damage and are not tabulated in this release.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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