SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Nationwide, 31.2% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
That number is down from the record high of 31.5% set in the first quarter of last year, but is still up significantly from pre-pandemic levels, with 26.3% of Redfin.com users looking to relocate in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Homebuyer interest in relocating to a new part of the country rose with the onset of the pandemic and has remained elevated for nearly two years. That’s partly due to low mortgage rates and partly the surge in remote work that’s allowing Americans to choose where they live based on things like affordability and weather rather than proximity to an office.
The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 111 metro areas in the fourth quarter, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must have made up at least 80% of the user’s searches. Redfin’s migration data goes back to 2017.
Homebuyers are flocking to relatively affordable areas including Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas
Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento and Tampa were the most popular migration destinations of all the major U.S. metros in the fourth quarter. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave.
Sunny, relatively affordable metro areas are typically the most popular places for people who are relocating. Sunbelt metros like Phoenix and Las Vegas are perennially near the top of the list, and this is the second quarter in a row that Miami has taken the number-one spot.
Homebuyers tend to move from expensive areas to more affordable places. New York ($640,000 median sale price) was the number-one origin for people moving to Miami ($440,000), while Los Angeles ($835,000) was the top origin for people moving to both Phoenix ($435,000) and Las Vegas ($339,000).
Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins |
|||||||
Rank |
Metro* |
Net Inflow, Q4 2021† |
Net Inflow, Q4 2020 |
Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, Q4 2021 |
Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, Q4 2020 |
Top Origin |
Top Out-of-State Origin
|
1 |
Miami, FL |
11,931 |
4,204 |
32.6% |
27.4% |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
2 |
Phoenix, AZ |
11,047 |
9,431 |
35.9% |
36.4% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
3 |
Las Vegas, NV |
8,031 |
9,495 |
42.7% |
52.1% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
4 |
Sacramento, CA |
7,756 |
8,990 |
41.2% |
49.0% |
San Francisco, CA |
Reno, NV |
5 |
Tampa, FL |
7,678 |
4,873 |
46.4% |
56.7% |
Orlando, FL |
New York, NY |
6 |
Dallas, TX |
6,363 |
7,891 |
25.6% |
32.5% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
7 |
Cape Coral, FL |
5,526 |
4,199 |
66.8% |
75.7% |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
8 |
North Port, FL |
5,362 |
2,946 |
65.2% |
77.1% |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
9 |
San Antonio, TX |
5,334 |
2,906 |
43.1% |
44.9% |
Houston, TX |
Los Angeles, CA |
10 |
Atlanta, GA |
4,921 |
7,794 |
20.0% |
26.8% |
New York, NY |
New York, NY
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021 †Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the two million users sampled for this analysis only |
People are leaving big, expensive cities
San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Seattle are the top metros homebuyers looked to leave in the fourth quarter. That’s according to net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in.
Major metropolitan job centers–especially expensive ones–tend to top the list of places Redfin.com users are looking to leave, and this quarter is no exception. But as remote work becomes more solidified for many workers, even more people are leaving San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Seattle than a year ago.
Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations |
|||||||
Rank |
Metro* |
Net Outflow, Q4 2021† |
Net Outflow, Q4 2020 |
Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, Q4 2021 |
Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, Q4 2020 |
Top Destination |
Top Out-of-State Destination
|
1 |
San Francisco, CA |
48,904 |
41,982 |
23.5% |
25.1% |
Sacramento, CA |
Seattle, WA |
2 |
Los Angeles, CA |
39,586 |
24,220 |
19.4% |
18.1% |
San Diego, CA |
Phoenix, AZ |
3 |
New York, NY |
27,769 |
43,982 |
27.1% |
35.4% |
Philadelphia, PA |
Philadelphia, PA |
4 |
Washington, DC |
18,675 |
12,463 |
15.1% |
13.3% |
Salisbury, MD |
Salisbury, MD |
5 |
Seattle, WA |
16,632 |
3,171 |
17.0% |
14.6% |
Phoenix, AZ |
Phoenix, AZ |
6 |
Boston, MA |
9,980 |
1,376 |
16.6% |
12.9% |
Portland, ME |
Portland, ME |
7 |
Chicago, IL |
7,033 |
6,642 |
12.8% |
12.5% |
Cape Coral, FL |
Cape Coral, FL |
8 |
Denver, CO |
3,275 |
6,022 |
26.1% |
28.8% |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
9 |
Minneapolis, MN |
2,122 |
-906 |
23.4% |
19.1% |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
10 |
Portland, OR |
1,668 |
-2,195 |
17.2% |
16.4% |
Seattle, WA |
Seattle, WA
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021 †Among the two million users sampled for this analysis only |
To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/Q4-2021-housing-migration-trends
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.
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