IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2017, which shows home prices are up strongly both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationally increased year over year by 7 percent from September 2016 to September 2017, and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.9 percent in September 2017 compared with August 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.
Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2017 to September 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.1 percent from September 2017 to October 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Heading into the fall, home price growth continues to grow at a brisk pace,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This appreciation reflects the low for-sale inventory that is holding back sales and pushing up prices. The CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index rose about 3 percent over the last year, less than half the rise in the national Home Price Index.”
According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) data, an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 36 percent of cities have an overvalued housing stock as of September 2017. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Also, as of September, 28 percent of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 48 percent were overvalued, 16 percent were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.
“A strengthening economy, healthy consumer balance sheets and low mortgage interest rates are supporting the continued strong demand for residential real estate,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While demand and home price growth is in a sweet spot, a third of metropolitan markets are overvalued and this will become more of an issue if prices continue to rise next year as we anticipate.“
*August 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™
is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities
real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of
repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally
released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week
lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of
home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined”
tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including
all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached
properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ
techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides
measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on
property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs.
non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is
available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including
non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global
property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The
company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary
sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years,
providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other
encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and
related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include
real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the
public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data,
analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients
rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities,
improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif.,
CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific.
For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
