Auto Sales Expected to Decline in April for 4th Straight Month

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,440,200 units in April, down 3.9 percent from a year ago and nearly flat on a selling day adjusted basis at -0.2 percent.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units for the month, down 1.9 percent from a 17.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to decline 4.8 percent with 1,190,657 units and down on a selling day adjusted basis at -1.2 percent.

“Despite higher incentives and nearly flat sales (on a daily sales rate basis), there is positivity in the April sales numbers,” said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG. “Historical ALG data indicate Easter weekend sales are typically 2 percent lower than average, putting April 2017 at a disadvantage since the holiday fell in March last year. Also, fleet deliveries continue to drop on a year over year basis, indicating that retail demand is still driving sales in 2017.”

Incentive spending by automakers may average an estimated $3,465 per vehicle in April, up 13.9 percent from a year ago, and down 2.5 percent from March 2017.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.0 this month up from 96.9 in March, which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the March unemployment rate, which came in at 4.5 percent, combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.40 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for April:

• Registration mix is expected to be 82.7 percent retail sales and 17.3 percent fleet versus 83.5 percent retail and 16.5 percent fleet last April.
• Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,318,537, down 0.8 percent from April 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer	April 2017 Forecast	April 2016	% Change vs. April 2016		YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,500	29,826	-1.1	%	2.7	%
Daimler	32,500	32,291	0.6	%	4.5	%
FCA	176,000	192,685	-8.7	%	-5.1	%
Ford	212,000	229,739	-7.7	%	-4.2	%
GM	260,000	259,557	0.2	%	4.0	%
Honda	145,000	148,829	-2.6	%	1.2	%
Hyundai	62,000	62,213	-0.3	%	3.5	%
Kia	49,000	56,508	-13.3	%	-10.0	%
Nissan	122,000	123,861	-1.5	%	2.3	%
Subaru	52,500	50,380	4.2	%	8.2	%
Toyota	197,000	211,125	-6.7	%	-3.1	%
Volkswagen Group	49,500	50,522	-2.0	%	1.7	%
Industry	1,440,200	1,498,965	-3.9	%	-0.2	%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer	April 2017 Forecast		April 2016		March 2017
BMW	2.0	%	2.0	%	2.3	%
Daimler	2.3	%	2.2	%	2.1	%
FCA	12.2	%	12.9	%	12.3	%
Ford	14.7	%	15.3	%	15.1	%
GM	18.1	%	17.3	%	16.5	%
Honda	10.1	%	9.9	%	8.8	%
Hyundai	4.3	%	4.2	%	4.3	%
Kia	3.4	%	3.8	%	3.2	%
Nissan	8.5	%	8.3	%	10.9	%
Subaru	3.6	%	3.4	%	3.5	%
Toyota	13.7	%	14.1	%	13.8	%
Volkswagen Group	3.4	%	3.4	%	3.3	%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer	April 2017 Forecast	April 2016	YoY % Change		YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	28,560	29,059	-1.7	%	2.1	%
Daimler	30,392	30,138	0.8	%	4.7	%
FCA	146,000	153,150	-4.7	%	-1.0	%
Ford	142,000	167,744	-15.3	%	-12.1	%
GM	200,000	204,178	-2.0	%	1.7	%
Honda	143,609	146,237	-1.8	%	2.0	%
Hyundai	50,607	52,997	-4.5	%	-0.8	%
Kia	40,205	46,894	-14.3	%	-11.0	%
Nissan	91,499	94,389	-3.1	%	0.7	%
Subaru	49,245	47,666	3.3	%	7.3	%
Toyota	174,203	184,208	-5.4	%	-1.8	%
Volkswagen Group	46,648	47,608	-2.0	%	1.8	%
Industry	1,190,657	1,251,071	-4.8	%	-1.2	%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer	Incentive per Unit Apr 2017 Forecast		Incentive per Unit Apr 2016		Incentive per Unit Mar 2017		Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Apr 2016		Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Mar 2017		Total Spending Apr 2017 Forecast
BMW	$	4,451	$	5,290	$	4,227	-15.9	%	5.3	%	$	130,850,555
Daimler	$	4,670	$	4,000	$	4,767	16.8	%	-2.0	%	$	151,787,792
FCA	$	4,482	$	3,982	$	4,583	12.6	%	-2.2	%	$	779,906,193
Ford	$	3,775	$	3,514	$	3,809	7.4	%	-0.9	%	$	800,201,090
GM	$	4,717	$	4,012	$	4,850	17.6	%	-2.7	%	$	1,226,424,730
Honda	$	1,863	$	1,604	$	1,853	16.2	%	0.6	%	$	270,175,905
Hyundai	$	2,580	$	2,008	$	2,591	28.5	%	-0.4	%	$	159,933,159
Kia	$	2,978	$	2,722	$	3,004	9.4	%	-0.9	%	$	145,923,492
Nissan	$	3,895	$	3,232	$	4,036	20.5	%	-3.5	%	$	475,183,155
Subaru	$	864	$	595	$	907	45.2	%	-4.8	%	$	45,349,377
Toyota	$	2,311	$	1,996	$	2,430	15.8	%	-4.9	%	$	455,310,295
Volkswagen Group	$	3,922	$	3,443	$	3,995	13.9	%	-1.8	%	$	193,330,272
Industry	$	3,465	$	3,041	$	3,556	13.9	%	-2.5	%	$	4,968,169,020

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.