STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--With Californians headed to the polls next Tuesday, the Hoover Institution’s Golden State Poll finds Governor Jerry Brown holding a commanding lead in the gubernatorial primary, with conservative Republican assemblyman Tim Donnelly leading businessman Neel Kashkari for second place and the right to face Brown in the general election.
The survey, administered by the survey research firm YouGov, sampled 1,000 Californians from May 7 to May 19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percent for the full sample.
Brown received 36 percent of support from registered voters, with Donnelly earning 12 percent and Kashkari 5 percent. Businessman Glenn Champ finished fourth, with 4 percent. Donnelly enjoyed a two-to-one edge over Kashkari among Republicans and a three-to-one margin among independents. Forty-two percent of Republicans and 40 percent of independents, however, remain undecided.
“Unlike 2010, when the two Republican candidates spent nearly $109 million in a hotly contested gubernatorial primary, this year’s contest is a low-budget affair that hasn’t resonated with voters as evidenced by the high number of undecideds,” said Bill Whalen, a Hoover Institution research fellow who oversees the Golden State Poll. “Given that uncertainty, all bets are off as to who places and who shows in the governor’s race.”
The survey also asked Californians if the open-primary system, in effect for the first time in statewide constitutional contests since its ballot passage in 2010, has piqued their interest. Four in ten voters said the new system has made them more interested in learning about the candidates.
“In this early stage, most Californians doubt that the reform can live up to its promise,” said Tammy Frisby, PhD, a Hoover research fellow who manages the survey’s design and data analysis. “Only one in four voters believe that the open primary system will lead to progress on important public policy issues. Voters who told us they were most interested in following the news and public affairs were less likely than other voters to think the reform would help--21 percent versus 31 percent.”
The Golden State Poll also sought Californians’ opinions on what should be done with the state’s $2.2 billion surplus and the recent spate of ethics violations plaguing the California State Legislature. As per usual, the survey also sampled California voters on their economic confidence and well-being.
Among the highlights
- Voters remain fiscally cautious. The top four choices for allocating the surplus: taxpayer refund (20 percent), K-12 education (14 percent), responding to future water shortages (13 percent), and rainy-day fund (12 percent). Only 2 percent chose preschool for four-year-olds, a must-have item for Democratic lawmakers.
- Blame for Sacramento’s ethics woes. Voters chalked them up to culture of corruption in the state legislature (29 percent), too much money in politics (28 percent), and lack of lawmakers’ integrity (27 percent). Only 6 percent faulted themselves for not caring enough; 4 percent thought insufficient media coverage was the main culprit.
On the survey’s economic side
- Still on a financial wrong track. Twice as many Californians say their family is financially worse off (34 percent) than better off (15 percent) versus a year ago. That’s little different from the previous two Golden State Polls.
- Californians lack financial and job confidence. Only 19 percent of Californians expect their family’s finances to improve in six months, again, not much of a change from the previous two surveys. Only 45 percent of respondents believe they can make a lateral job move within in six months; 49 percent were unsure.
For more on the poll, go to http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Hoover-Golden-State-Poll-May-2014-crosstabs.pdf.
The Hoover Institution Golden State Poll is conducted quarterly by researchers at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, in partnership with the survey research firm YouGov. The May 2014 Hoover investigators are Jeremy Carl; Lanhee Chen, PhD; Tammy Frisby, PhD; Bill Whalen; and Carson Bruno. Survey respondents are matched on a set of individual characteristics; the sample is statistically weighted based on estimates from the American Community Survey, the Current Population Survey, and the Pew Religious Landscape Survey.
