NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--During the course of routine surveillance, Fitch Ratings has affirmed the 'BBB+' rating to Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority's (PREPA) approximately $7.8 billion in outstanding power revenue bonds. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
SECURITY
The bonds are secured by a senior lien on net revenues of the electric system.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Stable Financial Metrics Through Recession: PREPA is the sole electricity provider to almost 1.5 million users in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The 'BBB+' rating reflects PREPA's tightened but stable financial profile during a five-year period of economic recession and reduced electricity sales. Operating margins have fallen into the single digits, but have stabilized in the 8% range (in excess of 10% pre 2008). Management has cut operating costs the past two years to offset declining sales.
Fuel Adjustment Surcharge: The fuel adjustment surcharge adds cash flow stability as it allows for full pass-through of fuel and purchased power costs on a current basis. Fuel accounts for approximately 60% of operating expenses.
Leverage Rising With Large Capital Plan: The rating takes into account PREPA's $1.75 billion capital plan through 2015, of which, roughly 91% will be debt financed. For fiscal year (FY) 2010, PREPA's debt burden, as measured by debt-to-funds available for debt service (10.2 times [x]), is on the rise although still in-line with the average for similarly rated entities, at 9.3x.
Stabilized Accounts Receivables: With the support of the Government Development Bank (GDB; fiscal agent of the government of Puerto Rico), management has achieved success in slowing the pace of growth in government account receivables. Nonetheless, PREPA's overall high level of accounts receivables, at 25% of revenues, remains a negative credit factor.
Improved External Liquidity: In FY2010 and FY2011, PREPA issued approximately $1.5 billion in debt primarily to refinance close to $1.2 billion in short-term and bank-line borrowings (most issued to pre-fund capital expenditures). The refinancings freed-up PREPA's external lines of credit. PREPA's days liquidity improved to 55 days in FY 2010 from 29 days in FY 2009; and is projected to remain solid for FY 2011.
Financial Projections: While electricity sales and expenditure reductions in FY2010 were better than initially projected, longer-term financial stability is dependent upon PREPA attaining electricity sales and operational efficiencies in-line with their projections. PREPA is not projecting any base rate increase through 2015 at this time.
Diversifying Power Supply: As is typical for island electric systems, PREPA's power supply is heavily dependent on oil-fired generation - a volatile and costly fuel source. PREPA's has made a concerted effort to diversify its fuel mix, and since 1999, oil dependency has dropped from 99% to 70% of fuel mix. With PREPA's ongoing conversions of generating plants from single-fuel to dual-fuel generation (oil and natural gas), PREPA's oil dependency should fall below 50% by 2013. This target, however, requires the construction of the Via Verde natural gas pipeline to provide the interconnection to the gas supply. Permitting for the pipeline is proceeding slower than expected, but moving ahead.
Average Electric Rates: PREPA's electric rates, at an average of roughly 23.8 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh) as of June 2011, are among the highest electric rates for U.S. municipal utilities. However, in comparison to other island electric systems, PREPA's retail rates are in-line with their counterparts.
Prolonged Economic Recession: Puerto Rico is in its 5th year of economic recession, unlike the mainland U.S. which has been in recovery, albeit lackluster, since June 2009. Unemployment hit a peak in Puerto Rico (17.3%) in April 2010, but has since shown some improvement (15.1%) in Sept. 2011. Wealth and income indicators are well below the U.S. national average, but not uncommon for island economies. Fitch continues to rate the debt of the Commonwealth at 'BBB+', Stable Outlook.
WHAT COULD TRIGGER A RATING ACTION
Deterioration in Financial Metrics: A notable decline in financial protection measures would result in a negative rating action. Fitch will be monitoring PREPA and the GDB's review of the capital plan, rate structure, and financial projections as they become available in first-quarter 2012.
Run-up in Accounts Receivables: Ability to collect on past due government and private customer billings continues to be a key rating driver for PREPA. Additionally, Fitch will be looking for PREPA to continue to reduce energy theft and line losses to improve cost recovery.
Greater than Anticipated Sales Decline: Should electricity sales begin to decline at an accelerating
rate, that would be a key credit concern, given PREPA's disposition not to raise electric rates.
CREDIT SUMMARY
PREPA is one of the largest public power systems in the U.S., and its credit strength is founded on its position as the sole provider of power to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, an island of 4 million people. The agency has historically operated independent from the commonwealth and has been allowed to pass through the costs of fuel and purchase power. Higher generating reserves are required for PREPA as an island system, which has a total of 5,839 megawatts ( M)W of owned and purchased capacity compared with the 2011 peak load of 3,406 MW. Concentration of resources in oil exposes PREPA to volatile fuel costs and carbon legislation or regulation. Fitch views the utility's efforts to diversify its resource mix as positive and believes the concentration is off-set by PREPA's ability to pass through fuel and purchased power costs to customers.
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
For the past five fiscal years (2007-2011), PREPA has been challenged with declining electric sales due to the economic recession but also less usage per customer. As a result, operating income and net revenues have tightened, with the exception of FY 2010, when cost cutting efforts and an increase in electric sales (hot summer that added 3.8% kwh sales) relieved some of the downward financial pressure.
Positively, for the past two years management has taken steps to strengthen the utility's financial profile via a combination of cost reductions and improved collection of account receivables. The cost cutting efforts included reducing staff positions, lowering healthcare benefits, and reducing overtime expense. PREPA also reduced the system's capital improvement plan to $1.75 billion (or $893.6 million less than originally planned in FY 2006), while still implementing the most needed and key strategic improvements for system reliability and fuel diversity.
While FY 2011 audited financials are not yet available, preliminary figures suggest operating margins slightly lower than FY 2010, due to lower electric sales (cooler summer). Positively, PREPA's FY 2010 stabilization plan provides for added operating cost savings of $11.4 million and overdue payment collection of $126 million by several of its governmental entities, which help offset the sales losses.
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLES
Puerto Rico's economy is weak and wealth and income indicators are well below those of the mainland U.S., which contributes to PREPA's high level of accounts receivables (A/R). Historically, most of PREPA's A/R have been related to customers in the government sector, such as the Department of Education or Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA). Net A/R have been greater than 22% of total revenues since 2008, one of the highest percentages of any public power utility rated by Fitch. While the size of accounts receivable from government agencies is a credit concern, progress on this front is evidenced by continued payments in 2010 and 2011, which have stabilized the receivables balance. Overall accounts receivables are still high year to date at $1.1 billion and slightly above last year's figure of $1.02 billion although the overall ratio to sales is relatively flat at roughly 25% for the past three years.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria', June 20, 2011;
--'U.S. Public Power Rating Criteria', March 28, 2011.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
U.S. Public Power Rating Criteria
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=613065
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