DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4febea/ukraine_agribusine) has announced the addition of the "Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q4 2011" report to their offering.
BMI View: As BMI predicted, Ukraine's grain export quotas were lifted on July 1 2011, though they have been replaced with a duty regime that so far appears to be restricting export activity. The outlook for the 2011/12 season is somewhat ambivalent, with reports of a bumper harvest being hindered by heavy rains rendering much of it suitable only for feed. The likely impact of the change in the Ukrainian export regime on global grains prices is therefore tough to call. But with heavy damage to Western European and US crops in 2011, BMI believes Ukrainian grain exports are likely to prove attractive to traders, duties notwithstanding.
Key forecasts
- A bumper corn crop is expected thanks to the same rains that may have affected wheat quality. BMI is forecasting production in 2011/12 of 16.2mn tonnes, up 36.2% y-o-y.
- In 2010/11, BMI is continuing to forecast a y-o-y decline in milk production of 5.8% to 10.5mn tonnes.
- The declining supply of milk will raise cheese input prices. In 2010/11, BMI is forecasting cheese production of 205,000 tonnes, down 6.7% y-o-y.
- Out to 2014/15, BMI sees poultry production as the most modern and dynamic sector of Ukraine's livestock industry, leading the way with growth of 40.7% to reach 963,240 tonnes.
- New figures show poultry consumption in 2010 came in at 904.920 tonnes. In 2011, BMI expects poultry consumption to rise 1.8% y-o-y to 920,960 tonnes.
A report in the Wall Street Journal on August 4 suggested as much as 60% of Ukraine's wheat exports were unsuitable for human consumption.
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