DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/be5df4/south_africa_power) has announced the addition of the "South Africa Power Report Q2 2011" report to their offering.
Business Monitor International's South Africa Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's power industry.
The new South Africa Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 21.41% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)'s regional power generation by 2015, although further supply disruptions can be expected if the country cannot add significantly to existing capacity. BMI's MEA power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). This report is forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,508TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 18.5% between 2011 and the end of the period.
South Africa shares third place with Egypt in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to its market size, low level of energy-import dependency and reasonably high proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not yet competitive, with little progress towards privatisation, and the regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive.
BMI forecasts that South African real GDP growth will average 3.80% a year in 2011-2015, with 2011 growth of 3.50%. The population is expected to expand from 49.7mn to 52.2mn, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption forecast to rise 49% and 13% respectively. Electricity consumption is set to increase from an estimated 211TWh in 2010 to 255TWh by 2015, maintaining current market tightness if the country can deliver only the report forecast annual average of 3.7% generation growth in 2011-2015.
Between 2011 and 2020 BMI forecasts an increase in South African electricity generation of 31.1%, the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 13.7% over 2015-2020, down from 15.3% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 12.0% in 2011-2015 to 14.8%, or 28.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 218% in hydro-power use - from a very low base - in 2011-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 29% in 2011-2020, with nuclear consumption up 54%.
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