DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6489d7/indonesia_shipping) has announced the addition of the "Indonesia Shipping Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
Indonesia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's shipping industry.
In December 2010 BMI noted that Indonesia had delayed passing into law changes to the countrys offshore shipping sabotage rules. The new law was delayed by five months, as concerns started to build in the industry that the need to have all vessels serving Indonesia's offshore oil and gas projects flagged to Indonesia would have a negative effect on the country's oil and gas production levels. The sectors shipping demands are currently met largely by foreign-flagged vessels. It is hoped that the postponement will give the shipping sector time to come to an agreement with the government that will allow the continued use of foreign-flagged vessels, at least in the short term. In the mid-term we expect to see a drive to order vessels to serve the offshore oil and gas industry by Indonesian firms.
Going into 2011 BMI believes the economic fundamentals are looking good for Indonesia, which will benefit the local ports and shipping sector. Against a background of relative political stability we see sustained strength in domestic consumer demand, good levels of consumer confidence, declining unemployment levels and relatively low interest rates. Importantly, foreign investors seem to be shifting away from a perception of Indonesia as a very risky business destination. The rupiah is set at a level to encourage export competitiveness. While a number of risks (such as high levels of corruption) remain present, BMI is bullish over the country's prospects over the next decade. BMI is estimating 5.8% GDP growth in 2010, followed by a predicted 5.9% growth rate in 2011, and an acceleration to 6% in 2012. In the medium term (the five years to 2015) we expect GDP growth to average a healthy 6.1% per annum. At this level of growth, freight demand for a number of key traded bulk commodities (such as coal, oil and gas, and agricultural foodstuffs) will expand rapidly.
At the Port of Tanjung Priok (POTP) total tonnage will increase by 5.5% in 2011 to 40.896mn tonnes, representing a slowdown on the 9.5% growth experienced in 2010. We expect tonnage growth in this key Indonesian report to remain healthy for the rest of our five-year forecast period, running to 2015. At the Port of Palembang (POP), we are expecting growth of 5.7% in 2011 to 11.19mn tonnes, after 5.3%expansion in 2010. We also project reasonably strong performance over the next five years at POP. In 2011 we project box handling growth of 5.7%, which will see the number of containers handled reach98,739 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
BMI's view is that looking forward the engine of Indonesian growth will be its internal consumer market, driven by an expanding middle class and rising standards of living. However, that is not inconsistent with a dynamic foreign trade performance. In real terms foreign trade slumped by 12% during the global recession of 2009, recovered quite vigorously in 2010 with an estimated growth rate of 9%, and is forecast to advance once more in 2011 with growth of 9%.
Companies Mentioned:
- A.P. MLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6489d7/indonesia_shipping