DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1856fa/egypt_oil_and_gas) has announced the addition of the "Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.
The Egypt Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's oil and gas industry.
The latest Egypt Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 19.52% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.63% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn b/d in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. Egypt will consume an estimated 36.46% of the regions gas in 2010, with its market share set to be 32.17% by 2015. It will contribute an estimated 29.16% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 23.87% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous years level.
Egyptian real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 5.1% in 2010, with average annual growth of 5.2% forecast in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 734,000b/d in 2010 to 860,000b/d in 2015, subject to national efforts to conserve oil and increase the use of gas. State oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs), and alone accounts for just 20% of the country's oil output. In spite of higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from an estimated 733,000b/d in 2010 to 681,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 77bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 64bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm to 57bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 20bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a fall in Egyptian oil and gas liquids production of 18.2%, with volumes slipping steadily to 600,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 35.7%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 997,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 95bcm by the end of the period. With demand increasing by 60.6% between 2010 and 2020, there should be export potential increasing to almost 23bcm, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMIs 10- year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Egypt now shares third place with Libya in BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds equal seventh place with Cameroon in BMIs updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country's score benefits from healthy proven gas reserves, an established competitive landscape, a reasonable gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country's risk environment is sound, but this alone may not be enough to push it higher during the next few quarters. Algeria is now just three points ahead but Egypt lacks the near-term momentum to challenge sixth place. Egypt is comfortably in the upper half of the league table in BMIs downstream Business Environment ratings, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked outright second having remained ahead of Algeria, thanks to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity, population and GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity is a relatively weak suit.
Companies Mentioned:
- Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC)
- BP Egypt
- Eni Egypt
- Shell Egypt
- BG Egypt
- Apache Energy
- Dana Gas
- Edison
- RWE Dea
- Melrose Resources Summary
- Lukoil Summary
- ExxonMobil Summary
- Chevron Summary
- GDF Suez Summary
- Reliance Industries Summary
- Enel Summary
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1856fa/egypt_oil_and_gas