DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/31e563/south_africa_oil_a) has announced the addition of the "South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
The South Africa Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's oil and gas industry.
BMI forecasts that South Africa will account for 12.8% of African regional oil demand by 2015, with negligible domestic crude production, but a growing synthetic oil capability. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. In 2010, South Africa's estimated share of regional gas supply will have been an estimated 1.59%, rising to 2.17% by 2015. The country's share of demand in 2010 will have been an estimated 5.67%, with 7.96% predicted by 2015.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Ural's delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous years level.
We estimate that South African real GDP will rise by 3% in 2010. We are predicting average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 523,000b/d in 2010 to 564,000b/d in 2015, representing less than 1.5% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. There is very little domestic crude production, although national companies contribute some 200,000b/d of synthetic oil output.
International oil companies (IOCs) are restricted largely to roles in oil refining and fuels distribution. Gas production could reach 7bcm by 2013/14, up from an estimated 3.5bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 7bcm to 14bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 7bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting an increase in South African oil consumption of 17.8%, with demand rising steadily to 616,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Synthetic oil production is set to rise from 205,000b/d to 350,000b/d, with crude imports peaking at 306,000b/d in 2010. Gas consumption is expected to rise to 17bcm by the end of the period, requiring imports to increase from an estimated 3.5bcm in 2010 to 12bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
South Africa now shares first place with Algeria in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is now ranked equal third alongside Nigeria in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, despite its virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. It stands just one point above Angola, so may come under pressure over the medium term. South Africa's score reflects the low level of state asset ownership and the advanced stage of privatisation, plus an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. South Africa leads the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with several high scores. It is ranked ahead of Egypt and Algeria, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, gas consumption growth, non-state competition, deregulation, and nominal GDP. Egypt is three points below and represents a longer-term threat to South Africa's rating."
Companies Mentioned:
- PetroSA
- Sasol
- Engen
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Total
- BP
- Caltex
- Chesapeake/Statoil
- Rompco
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/31e563/south_africa_oil_a