DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6b0029/serbia_defence_and) has announced the addition of the "Serbia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
Business Monitor International's Serbia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's defence and security industry.
When major defence reforms are concluded in early 2011, Serbia's armed forces will number nearly 36,000 members, theoretically adhering to high professional standards. Serbian officials assert that their armed forces contribute to Balkan stability, though some neighbours undoubtedly see them more as a threat than a reassuring presence. While Serbia is looking to streamline its armed forces, it is loath to lose its defence capabilities.
Serbia is expected to join EU missions from 2011, according to an October 2010 report in Balkans.com Business News. This will be the first time that Serbia has participated in missions outside the aegis of the UN. The launch of operations with the EU will coincide with the conclusion of Serbia's military professionalisation programme. Serbian forces are expected to be deployed to the Somali coast with an EU force to tackle piracy in the region.
We believe that Serbia will, over a multi-year time horizon, moderate its stance on the issue of Kosovan independence. We believe that Kosovo's de-facto independence is now irreversible given outright support from the United States. Additionally, further countries are likely to recognise Kosovo in light of the ICJ's ruling, adding to the 69 which already do so. As time passes and recognition grows, Kosovo will, in our view, move towards the 100 country recognition required to join the United Nations. Furthermore, we do not believe Serbia's government will seek to escalate regional tensions over the issue. Instead, we expect it to slowly moderate its stance and rhetoric over the issue as alternative foreign relations goals, such as EU integration, take precedence and Belgrade increasingly recognises the irreversible state of affairs. BMI estimates that defence spending totalled US$854m in 2010, equal to 5.0% of overall government expenditure and 2.4% of GDP. This represented a 10.24% cut in defence spending in dollar terms as the Serbian government looked to tackle the country's worrying fiscal deficit and continue scaling back defence outlay. In constant price terms, spending was cut 16%. Per capita spending was only US$117.20. For 2011, we forecast that expenditure will fall further to US$805m or US$110.70 per capita as the austerity drive continues, representing a 5.75% cut, or 13% in constant price terms. However, defence will account for 5.3% of total government outlay, suggesting that other areas will now be cut ahead of defence. As a proportion of GDP, spending will stay at 2.4%.
We expect defence spending growth in dollar terms to rebound from 2012, rising from 7.87% that year to 10.42% in 2014, moderating only slightly to 9.37%-9.59% for the following five years. As a proportion of government spending, defence will rise to 5.6% in 2012, peaking at 5.7% in 2015-2016 and then dropping back to 5.3% by 2019; as a proportion of GDP, we expect a flatline at 2.4% for the duration of the forecast period, thus keeping levels constant since 2008. By 2019, BMI expects defence expenditure of US$1.628bn, or US$230.30 per capita."
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Global Political Outlook
- Global Security Outlook
- Serbia's Security Risk Ratings
- Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Company Profiles
- Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
- Prvi Partizan S-M
- Zastava Oruje S-M
- Krusik
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6b0029/serbia_defence_and.