DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6c4965/romania_retail_rep) has announced the addition of the "Romania Retail Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
Business Monitor International's "Romania Retail Report" provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's retail industry.
The report forecasts that the country's total retail sales will rise 14% between 2011 and 2014, growing from a predicted RON20.65bn (US$8.24bn) in 2011 to a forecast RON23.62bn (US$9.43bn) by 2014. Continuing wage growth, the recent consumer lending boom and rising disposable income following the introduction of a new flat rate of income tax are key factors behind retail market expansion. Romanias privatisation process since 1990 and EU membership since in 2007 have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 4.1% in local currency terms.
Romania's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$165.72bn in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 3.7% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 21.4mn in 2011 to 21.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to grow 42.7% by 2014, reaching US$10,494. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from a predicted US$5,005 in 2011 to US$7,411 in 2014.
Wage growth in Romania, as in many other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, has accelerated quickly over the past few years, more than doubling between 2002 and 2006 from US$1,932 to US$4,083. The European Commission forecast nominal and real 2008 wage growth in Romania to be the fastest among all 27 member states, and BMI estimates the 2009 average annual wage at US$5,611.
Romania has the second-largest population in Central Europe, after Poland, with 39.2% of the total in the 20-44 age range in 2005, according to UN Population Division data. This segment of the population, which accounts for an important element of future retail spending, is estimated to have increased to 41.1% in 2010. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 70.1% in 2005 and an estimated 70.7% in 2010.
Non-food retail sub-sectors benefiting from changing patterns of consumption in Romania include clothing and footwear, which constituted 6.2% of total household monthly expenditure in 2006, up from 5.9% in 2001, according to the Institute of National Statistics (INS). Furniture accounted for 4% in 2006, up from 2.9% in 2001.
Retail sub-sectors that are likely to experience strong sales growth over the period include over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, which BMI predicts will total US$0.60bn in 2011 and grow by more than 39% to US$0.84bn by 2014. Market growth is likely to be strong, boosted by factors such as EU membership, privatisation of the pharmaceutical industry and the consolidation and improvement in operating conditions in retail and wholesale.
Vehicle sales are forecast to reach US$4.68bn in 2011 and to grow by 78%, to US$8.33bn, by the end of the forecast period. The recovery in the Romanian automotive market will be faster than in most developed markets due to the countries unrealised sales potential. By 2014, annual sales will exceed 290,000 units.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,214bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,359bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 83% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to be sustained through to 2014. Romanias forecast market share of 0.7% in 2011 is expected to remain static through to 2014.
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Business Environment Outlook
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Automotives
- OTC Pharmaceuticals
- Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data
- BMI Methodology
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6c4965/romania_retail_rep