GERMANTOWN, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AEM, the essential source for environmental insights, today released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, warning of a possible intense season ahead. The company's forecast predicts an 84% chance of above-normal activity, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes expected—a significant increase from the 1991-2020 average.
AEM's outlook is based on a combination of advanced machine learning models and analog year analysis, considering key climate factors such as the expected development of La Niña conditions and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. These conditions are expected to contribute to a more active hurricane season.
The forecast also includes a projected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 215, with a range of 180-250. ACE is a measure of the overall intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a given season. This prediction further underscores the potential for an exceptionally active season, as the average ACE value from 1950 to 2023 is 106.
"Our forecast paints a concerning picture for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season," said Mark Hoekzema, Chief Meteorologist at AEM. "The confluence of La Niña and abnormally warm Atlantic waters creates a breeding ground for hurricane development. We are strongly urging residents in high-risk areas along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard to stay vigilant and prepare accordingly."
According to AEM's analysis, several regions face a higher risk of impact from tropical systems this season. The Gulf Coast, particularly Texas and Louisiana, could see an increased likelihood of landfalling storms. Additionally, the Atlantic coast, especially the Southeast and Florida, may also be at elevated risk due to the projected steering patterns and warm ocean temperatures.
The company's forecast also draws comparisons to previous active hurricane seasons, such as 2005 and 2017, which saw 28 and 17 named storms, respectively. The 2005 season, which included Hurricane Katrina, saw an ACE value of 250, while the 2017 season, featuring Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, recorded an ACE of 225.
The full hurricane forecast can be viewed on AEM's website via the webinar titled "Preparing for the 2024 Hurricane Season."
About AEM
AEM is combining global technology leaders to empower communities and organizations to survive and thrive in the face of escalating environmental risks. By deploying intelligent sensing networks, operating a secure and scalable data management infrastructure, and delivering high-value analytics through a suite of end-user applications, AEM serves as the essential source for environmental insights. These technologies enable positive outcomes, helping reduce environmental impact and creating a safer world. For more information, visit https://aem.eco/.
