PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, SurveyMonkey, the world’s leading online survey platform, released final polling estimates for the 2016 presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections. Just ahead of tomorrow’s election, SurveyMonkey and NBC News showed Hillary Clinton with a clear and consistent national lead, beating Donald Trump 47 to 41 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
“Our polls have shown Clinton’s lead in the national popular vote to be remarkably stable despite the many apparent twists and turns in the campaign,” said Jon Cohen, SurveyMonkey’s Chief Research Officer. “All fall, Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump, with her margin hovering in a narrow band between 4 and 6 percentage points.”
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: CLINTON LIKELY TO WIN
In its exclusive polls across all 50 states (and Washington, D.C.), SurveyMonkey has Clinton with significant leads in 21 states (including Washington, D.C.) for a total of 257 Electoral College votes. She has numerical advantages in another six states. Should Clinton prevail in all of them, she will win the presidency with 334 Electoral College votes, putting the final tally between President Obama’s victories in 2008 (365 Electoral College votes) and 2012 (332).
Trump has clear advantages in 23 states, which total 188 Electoral College votes. One state, Georgia, is a tie in our final pre-election estimate.
Across a range of possible scenarios given by SurveyMonkey’s 50-state results, the average outcome is 321 Electoral votes for Clinton to 217 for Trump. The chances of a Clinton win are 96 percent.
“The size and scale of our Election Tracking effort, across 97 races, have never been attempted before,” said Zander Lurie, CEO of SurveyMonkey. “Our team has surveyed more than one million American voters since we started the weekly tracking poll in December 2015. In the coming days, our data will be visualized in an interactive Electoral Map providing a definitive, detailed look at who voted and why in this historic contest.”
SENATE RACES: DEMOCRATS LIKELY TO PICK UP 5 SEATS
SurveyMonkey’s Election Tracking platform is the only polling platform currently able to analyze and compare all 34 Senate races at scale. Today, SurveyMonkey is forecasting the winners of these contests. Their final snapshot shows Democrats likely positioned to win five Republican-held seats in the Senate, four of them by Democratic women, including Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
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SurveyMonkey Senate Polls AMONG LIKELY VOTERS |
Republican | Democrat | Rep-Dem |
Incumbent |
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|
Florida Senate
n=4092 |
Marco Rubio
48% |
Patrick Murphy
49% |
+1 Dem |
Marco Rubio
Republican |
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|
Illinois Senate
n=1823 |
Mark Kirk
39% |
Tammy Duckworth
56% |
+17 Dem |
Mark Kirk
Republican |
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|
Missouri Senate
n=1368 |
Roy Blunt
44% |
Jason Kander
51% |
+7 Dem |
Roy Blunt
Republican |
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|
New Hampshire Senate
n=696 |
Kelly Ayotte
42% |
Maggie Hassan
51% |
+9 Dem |
Kelly Ayotte
Republican |
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|
North Carolina Senate
n=3126 |
Richard Burr
43% |
Deborah Ross
47% |
+4 Dem |
Richard Burr
Republican |
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|
Pennsylvania Senate
n=2845 |
Pat Toomey
45% |
Kate McGinty
49% |
+4 Dem |
Pat Toomey
Republican |
||||||||
|
Wisconsin
n=2246 |
Ron Johnson
49% |
Russ Feingold
48% |
+1 Rep |
Ron Johnson
Republican |
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GUBERNATORIAL RACES: RESULTS IN ALL DOZEN ELECTIONS FOR GOVERNORS’ MANSIONS
SurveyMonkey today also released data on all 12 gubernatorial contests. You can see the full report here.
ELECTION TRACKING PROJECT
SurveyMonkey has a proven track record for leveraging the speed, scale and quality of its online polling platform to effectively forecast political races. The Election Tracking team is led by two of the most respected pollsters in America: Jon Cohen, former head of polling at The Washington Post and Pew Research, and SurveyMonkey’s Head of Election Polling Mark Blumenthal, previously co-founder of Pollster.com.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Later this week, SurveyMonkey for the first time ever will also publish polls with Election Day and early voters, where the interactive Electoral Map will reflect how and why key voters groups made the big choice between Clinton and Trump. In all 50 states, breakdowns of voter choices by age, education, race, marital status, military service, union membership, gun ownership, and more will be available.
Electoral College Map Methodology
See here to read more about SurveyMonkey’s methodology.
About SurveyMonkey
SurveyMonkey is the world's leading online survey platform, with more than 3 million survey responses every day. SurveyMonkey has revolutionized the way people give and take feedback, making it accessible, easy and affordable for everyone. The company was founded in 1999 with a focus on helping people make better decisions, and has built technology based on over 15 years of experience in survey methodology and web development. Customers include 99% of the Fortune 500, academic institutions, organizations and neighborhood soccer leagues everywhere. The company has over 600 employees throughout North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific, with headquarters in Palo Alto, CA. For more information, visit www.surveymonkey.com.
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