FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Worldwide PC shipments are now expected to fall by -9.7% in 2013, further deepening what is already the longest market contraction on record, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The new forecast reflects not only a continued expansion of mobile device options at the expense of PCs, but also marked the cessation of emerging market growth that the industry had come to rely on in recent years. The market as a whole is expected to decline through at least 2014, with only single-digit modest growth from 2015 onward, and never regain the peak volumes last seen in 2011.
While the results of the second quarter were in line with forecast, a number of issues led IDC to further downgrade its PC outlook. Aside from stubbornly depressed consumer interest, 2013 also marks the first year where emerging regions are expected to contract at a steeper rate than mature regions. Leading this trend is China’s revised forecast, which calls for a double-digit decline in shipments this year compared to 2012, as channel sources report high levels of stagnant inventory and continued enthusiasm for tablets and smartphones. The repercussions of a slowing China, anxiety over the possible tapering of the U.S. quantitative easing program, and weak intrinsic PC demand are among a litany of factors that have rippled across portions of other formerly strong-growth areas, leading emerging markets as a whole to see declines through at least 2014.
"The days where one can assume tablet disruptions are purely a First World problem are over," said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC. "Advances in PC hardware, such as improvements in the power efficiency of x86 processors remain encouraging, and Windows 8.1 is also expected to address a number of well-documented concerns. However, the current PC usage experience falls short of meeting changing usage patterns that are spreading through all regions, especially as tablet price and performance become ever more attractive."
Looking beyond 2014, IDC expects a slow rebound, driven in part by modest consumer refresh of systems whose lifecycle have dramatically lengthened in recent years, as well as businesses taking a first serious look beyond Windows 7. However, without an adequate mass of compelling applications, the PC market is poised to subsist primarily on lukewarm replacements in the future.
"The second quarter of 2013 was the third consecutive quarter where the U.S. market came through stronger than the worldwide market. This was largely due to some recovery in the overall economy and channel inventory replenishment," said Rajani Singh, Research Analyst, Client Computing. "Following the stronger than expected 2Q13, we expect the second half of 2013 to restore some volume momentum driven largely by better channel involvement of top vendors and industry restructuring/alignment. We also anticipate operating system migration (Window XP to 7) will drive some volume in the commercial segment. Entry-level ultraslim systems and lower-priced convertibles will also be bright spots in an otherwise still troubled consumer market."
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PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2012-2017 (Shipments in millions) |
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| Region | Form Factor | 2012 | 2013* | 2017* | ||||||||
| Emerging Markets | Desktop PC | 94.8 | 85.1 | 80.9 | ||||||||
| Emerging Markets | Portable PC | 110.4 | 99.9 | 117.6 | ||||||||
| Emerging Markets | Total PC | 205.2 | 185.0 | 198.5 | ||||||||
| Mature Markets | Desktop PC | 53.4 | 49.3 | 42.2 | ||||||||
| Mature Markets | Portable PC | 90.6 | 81.1 | 79.1 | ||||||||
| Mature Markets | Total PC | 144.0 | 130.4 | 121.2 | ||||||||
| Worldwide | Desktop PC | 148.2 | 134.4 | 123.1 | ||||||||
| Worldwide | Portable PC | 201.0 | 181.0 | 196.7 | ||||||||
| Worldwide | Total PC | 349.2 | 315.4 | 319.8 | ||||||||
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Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, August 2013 |
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* Forecast data |
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See Table and Taxonomy Notes below. |
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In addition to the table above, an interactive graphic illustrating worldwide desktop and portable PC shipments for the 2012-2015 forecast period is available here. Instructions on how to embed this graphic into online news articles and social media can be found by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
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PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2012-2017 |
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| Region | Form Factor | 2012 | 2013* | 2017* | ||||||||
| Emerging Markets | Desktop PC | -4.0% | -10.2% | -0.8% | ||||||||
| Emerging Markets | Portable PC | 0.5% | -9.5% | 6.0% | ||||||||
| Emerging Markets | Total PC | -1.6% | -9.8% | 3.1% | ||||||||
| Mature Markets | Desktop PC | -4.8% | -7.7% | -3.0% | ||||||||
| Mature Markets | Portable PC | -8.6% | -10.4% | -1.3% | ||||||||
| Mature Markets | Total PC | -7.2% | -9.4% | -1.9% | ||||||||
| Worldwide | Desktop PC | -4.2% | -9.3% | -1.6% | ||||||||
| Worldwide | Portable PC | -3.8% | -9.9% | 3.0% | ||||||||
| Worldwide | Total PC | -4.0% | -9.7% | 1.2% | ||||||||
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Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, August 2013 |
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* Forecast data |
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Table Note: Mature Markets include U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada. Emerging Markets includes Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa.
Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs, and do not include handhelds or Tablets such as the Apple iPad or Android Tablets
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in more than 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad.
About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 49 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.
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