DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/zqmrrj/mediumterm_oil)
has announced the addition of the "Medium-Term
Oil Market Report 2013 - Market Trends and Projections to 2018"
report to their offering.
Following several years of
stronger-than-expected North American supply growth, the shockwaves of
rising United States (US) shale gas and light tight oil (LTO) and
Canadian oil sands production are reaching virtually all recesses of the
global oil market. This North American supply revolution is not
happening in a vacuum. Sustained high oil prices helped unleash it. Its
impact is also compounded by other market developments, most prominently
social and political turmoil in the MENA region in the wake of the Arab
Spring' and the shift in demand to East-of-Suez markets. Together, these
powerful forces are redefining the way oil is being produced, processed,
traded and consumed around the world. There is hardly any aspect of the
global oil supply chain that will not undergo some measure of
transformation over the next five years, with significant consequences
for the global economy and oil security.
Regional contrasts
that were identified in the previous edition of the Medium-Term Oil
Market Report (MTOMR), released in October 2012, have become even more
pronounced in the last few months. On the upstream front, incremental
North American LTO and oil sands production, which already towered over
the 2012 MTOMR, has increased in prominence. The forecast of non-OPEC
supply growth has been adjusted upwards, with North America now forecast
to grow by 3.9 mb/d from 2012 to 2018, accounting for more than half of
the increase. Downward revisions to the nonOPEC forecast are limited to
a 60 kb/d cut to the forecast for Africa.
Although non-OPEC
supply growth looks more robust than in the 2012 MTOMR, those upwards
revisions are more than offset by downward adjustments in OPEC crude
production capacity. Several members of the producer group face new
hurdles, notably in North and sub-Saharan Africa. The regional fallout
from the Arab Spring' is taking a toll on investment and capacity
growth. Security risks are on the rise, compounding the uncertainty
about future changes to the oil laws and investment regime. Two years
into the region's process of far-reaching social and political
transition, the biggest challenges lie ahead.
A resurgent
Iraq remains the largest single source of incremental OPEC capacity, but
a host of above-ground problems - administrative hurdles, delays to
contract awards, disagreements over payments between Erbil and Baghdad,
lingering security risks and problems in executing investment and
production plans - are bogging down development. Downward adjustments
across the group are partly offset by substantially stronger growth in
Saudi capacity than previously expected, reflecting newly announced
development projects. But the balance of global supply growth, more or
less evenly split between OPEC and non-OPEC in the 2012 MTOMR, is
tilting towards the latter. North America thus increases its share of
supply growth both within the non-OPEC group and more globally.
For
more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/zqmrrj/mediumterm_oil
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