SEOUL, South Korea--(BUSINESS WIRE)--100 hedge and private equity fund managers from all around the world believe that despite the anticipation of economic revival from ‘Abenomics,’ Japan will face high possibility of a financial crisis in the next five years. Their analyses predict that a European financial crisis will be deepened within five years which will result in a higher probability of the disintegration of the European monetary union. On the other hand, they foresee a relatively low possibility of another financial crisis in the U.S. and a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
A survey was undertaken by MoneyToday, one of the largest finance media in Korea, to forecast the outlook of the next five years by surveying 100 hedge and private equity fund managers located in the U.S., Europe, Hong Kong China, Korea, and Singapore. The results were revealed at the global conference, ‘K.E.Y. PLATFORM 2013,’ held on June 18 at the Conrad Seoul hotel located in Yeouido, South Korea. The Conference was held to celebrate the 14th anniversary of MoneyToday. In total, 43 Americans, 13 Europeans, 7 Chinese, 15 Koreans as well as 22 Hong Kong and Singaporeans took part in the global survey.
In the survey, they were asked to predict the possibility of a financial crisis in Japan within the next five years. The average possibility reported was 67%. Policies of ‘Abenomics,’ the economic-revival plan of Shinzo Abe, to depreciate the yen led to falling government bond prices. It could be understood as a loss of investor confidence that may result in a flight of capital.
In another question that asked about the probability of deterioration of Eurozone economy, the average response was 74%. Regarding the possibility of dissolution of the Eurozone within the next five years, the average response was 66%.
Nevertheless, respondents answered an average of 63% possibility that the U.S. would experience another financial crisis, which is a relatively lower rate compared to those of Japan and Eurozone. In a question that dealt with China’s hard economic landing in the next five years, they evaluated the possibility to be an average of 58%. However, regarding the possibility of a greater wealth polarization within China, they marked an average of 77%. Possibility of a burst in China’s real estate bubble was predicted, on average, as 69%.
In a question to choose the largest issue in the global economy in the next five years, ‘population aging’ received the most votes followed by ‘generational conflicts’ and ‘increased medical expenses’. Only a few named ‘falling productivity’ as a global risk.
Managers predicted ‘3D printing’ to be the number one technological advance that would change the world in the coming five years followed by ‘big data’, ‘cloud computing’, ‘new bioscience technologies’ and ‘artificial intelligence’. ‘Nano technology’ was also on the list. Only a few chose the ‘electric car’ as promising new technology.
A scenario planning technique was used to compose the results of the respondent’s answers and it was presented as ‘Global Scenario 2018’.
“After leadership changes in major countries in 2012, this is the first case study to predict the rapidly changing world,” said Micheal Traem, head of advisors in DROEGE INTERNATIONAL GROUP AG, who participated in the scenario planning as counselor. “The key point of this scenario is that all nations will need to take a humble approach making their way to the future due to aggravated issues including Japan’s troubling situation and Europe’s difficulties.”
- For more detail and depicted scenario for 2018 global economy, please refer to the attached “2018 global scenario report” presented by MoneyToday media in the K.E.Y. PLATFORM 2013 plenary session
What is ‘K.E.Y. PLATFORM 2013’?
The 1st global conference to commemorate the 14th anniversary of its foundation, Money Today, one of the leading Korean economic media groups with theme “Establishing an Angle to Breakthrough Uncertainty.”
Money Today is one of the most rapid growing economic and business media groups in Korea since founded in 1999. This forum is designed as festival of not only business but also public sector networking. As you can see on our ‘K.E.Y.’ emblem, it will be a platform upon which all participants will easily knock around mutual interests, educate each other through discussions and yield potential beneficial linkages.
The 'K.E.Y. PLATFORM 2013' will present ‘2018 Global Scenarios’ that will predict the most vital changes in the global economic environment over the next 5 years. Through this wide-ranging analysis and discussion we will suggest the most effective roadmap for breaking through the future uncertainties towards profitable results.
