DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2cl5sd/mortgage_lending) has announced the addition of the "Mortgage Lending in Poland 2013-2015" report to their offering.
Mortgage lending in Poland 2013-2015 is the latest edition of the regular research paper published by Inteliace Research. Report builds on the success of the 2012 issue and provides an updated view of emerging trends on the Polish mortgage lending market. Similarly to the previous version our analysis covers a wide range of perspectives including: Market size, competitive structure, market shares and margins. A mid-term market forecast of mortgage outstanding value through 2015 has been also included.
Research findings have been presented in a structured and logical way in a form of horizontal presentation on 30 slides.
Summary
- Real estate market. The correction in residential real estate prices is continuing. After almost four years of price erosion, no signs of trend reversal could be observed in 2012. In contrary, more and more owners are apparently capitulating by putting their properties on the market with downward-revised asking prices. Also, the new construction market did not support price stabilization - the number of new completions increased by 17% YoY to 153,000 units in 2012. However, the falling number of new permits and starts, which fell by 10% and 12% respectively, indicates that the supply of new dwellings is likely to slow down in a two- to three-year perspective, which may help balance the market.
- Mortgage lending. In contrast to previous years, new sales of mortgage loans plunged in 2012, falling by 15% and 21% YoY in terms of volume and value respectively. In effect, the total outstanding mortgage debt at banks increased only by a fraction, to 316 billion PLN as of December 2012. While total mortgage debt remained stable, big changes took place in its currency structure. While the value of fx-denominated loans affected by regulatory tightening and strengthening currency contracted by 10%, a solid 18% growth in local currency loans compensated for the loss. The frequently used indicator of market development, outstanding debt-to-GDP ratio, contracted for the first time in recent history from 20.6% in 2011 to 19.8% in 2012.
- Regulatory environment & risk. The NPL ratio for PLN mortgage loans doubled from 2% in mid-2009 to 4% as of December 2012, providing a strong reason for The Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) to continue the regulatory tightening, including setting new debt-to-income and maximum-repayment thresholds. The rationale of this course was to prevent new production of high-risk loans in view of quickly deteriorating bank portfolios. Some market participants regarded this type of policy as excessive and likely to harm lending to credible borrowers. In reaction, KNF is currently engaging in discussion with banks about another set of modifications to lending rules, assuming, among other considerations, getting rid of DTI and maximum-repayment limits while banning fx loans to local currency earners and also limiting LTV to 90%. New regulations are expected to be adopted in mid-2013.
- The outlook. The mortgage lending market is expected to remain sluggish during most of 2013 but gradually improve through 2015 as positive factors - including a new governmental support program for first-time home buyers, a more-relaxed regulatory environment, lower nominal interest rates, and higher affordability due to lower prices of real estate - will take full effect. Inteliace Research expects that the total outstanding value of mortgage loans will increase 6% on average through 2015.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive summary
1. Residential real estate stock & prices
2. Mortgage lending
3. Regulatory issues, risk
4. Forecast
Methodological notes
Companies Mentioned
- GetinNoble bank
- Pekao
- BPH
- BRE bank (mBank, Multibank)
- Millennium
- Kredyt Bank
- PKO Bank Polski
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2cl5sd/mortgage_lending