SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--An estimated 1,166,665 new cars will be sold in July for a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.0 million light vehicles, according to the latest auto sales forecast by Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. The projected sales would be a 9.2 percent decrease from June 2012, but a 10.2 percent increase from July 2011 – even with two fewer selling days, year over year.
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.0 million vehicles in July, with fleet transactions accounting for 14.2 percent of total sales, accounting for the lowest mix of fleet sales of any month in 2012.
“July generally has the lowest mix of fleet sales every year, so this month tested the strength of the retail market,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “With a pace that’s still on track for around 14 million vehicles, it’s a good sign that fleet is not carrying the industry.
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SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
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| Sales Volume | July-12 Forecast | July-11 | June-12 | Change from July 2011* | Change from June 2012 | |||||
| GM | 214,315 | 214,915 | 248,750 | -0.3% | -13.8% | |||||
| Ford | 175,791 | 180,323 | 207,204 | -2.5% | -15.2% | |||||
| Toyota | 169,617 | 130,802 | 177,795 | 29.7% | -4.6% | |||||
| Honda | 123,668 | 80,502 | 124,808 | 53.6% | -0.9% | |||||
| Chrysler | 122,301 | 112,026 | 144,811 | 9.2% | -15.5% | |||||
| Nissan | 98,216 | 84,601 | 92,237 | 16.1% | 6.5% | |||||
| Industry | 1,166,665 | 1,059,118 | 1,284,960 | 10.2% | -9.2% | |||||
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*NOTE: July 2012 had 24 selling days; July 2011 had 26 |
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An estimated 3.2 million used cars will be sold in July, for a SAAR of 36.4 million. The pace is relatively flat compared to the 2.9 million used car sales in June for a SAAR of 36.5 million.
Low Fleet Levels Affect U.S. Automakers
July’s low fleet levels will, however, have a clear impact on individual automakers this month. Edmunds.com projects that each of the Big 3 U.S. manufacturers will lose market share in July, while the Japanese Big 3 will show gains.
“Because domestic automakers tend to have a higher percentage of fleet sales, it’s no surprise that their market shares will all take a hit this month,” says Caldwell. “But with new product launches driving today’s ultra-competitive retail environment, it will be that much more difficult for any automaker to recover lost market share.”
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MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
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| Market Share | July 12 Forecast | July-11 | Jun-12 |
Change from July 2011 (Percentage pts.) |
Change from Jun 2012 (Percentage pts.) |
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| GM | 18.4% | 20.3% | 19.4% | -1.9% | -1.0% | |||||
| Ford | 15.1% | 17.0% | 16.1% | -2.0% | -1.1% | |||||
| Toyota | 14.5% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |||||
| Honda | 10.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | |||||
| Chrysler | 10.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | -0.1% | -0.8% | |||||
| Nissan | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | |||||
Ford is expected to lose the most among the major automakers month over month (-1.1 percentage points), while Edmunds.com expects Nissan to show the biggest gain (+1.2 percentage points).
About Edmunds.com, Inc.
Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its acclaimed mobile site, Edmunds.com Android App and five-star Edmunds iPhone and iPad apps make car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and on the go. Its automotive enthusiast web site, InsideLine.com, is the most-read car publication of its kind. Its highly regarded mobile site and iPhone app features the wireless Web's most comprehensive gallery of automotive photos and videos. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook.