DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/jqcg3n/china_freight_tran) has announced the addition of the "China Freight Transport Report Q2 2012" report to their offering.
BMI expects continued growth in China's freight transport sector as it continues to benefit from the country's demand for minerals and raw materials, such as coking coal and iron ore. However, while our demand outlook remains largely positive, we caution that the possibility of a slowdown in Chinese economic growth is likely to begin in 2012. Our core view on Chinese growth is that we are past the boom phase and we are entering a period of much weaker expansion, with headline real GDP growth set to fall to 7.1% by 2013. While not an outright collapse, sub-8.0% growth is a concern.
The main reason we are calling for a sharp slowdown is our belief that the country's investment boom has involved a serious misallocation of capital, and as a result is finally set to be unwound in the near term.
Among the recent examples we have seen are the boom and bust of high-speed rail as well as the loss of momentum in the housing market, which suggest that the boom is coming to an end. This slowdown in growth will certainly affect demand for the raw materials and minerals shipped on the country's freight transport network, leading to a reduction in volumes. We could also see a reduction in investment in the country's freight transport network.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.4%.
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.7%.
- 2012 Port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 2.3%.
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 3.6%.
Companies Mentioned
- Jade Cargo International
- China Airlines Cargo (CAC)
- China Southern (Cargo)
- China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRCTC)
- Daqin Railway Company
- CR Intermodal
- Sinotrans Group
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- COSCO
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/jqcg3n/china_freight_tran