DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4fc7c8c7/country_risk_servi) has announced the addition of the "Country Risk Service China Updater" report to their offering.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unlikely to face a serious challenge to its hold on power in the forecast period. Limited political reform remains a possibility but will have to wait until after 2013, when the handover of the CCP leadership to a new generation of politicians will be completed. Real GDP growth will average 8.1% a year in 2012, but this will be at the cost of strains in the banking system and higher inflation. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that consumer prices will rise by 4.2% a year on average in the forecast period, and the threat of a surge in food prices poses upside risks to inflation. The government will persist in its attempts to reorient the economy towards private consumption and away from its current excessive reliance on investment, but it will have only limited success. The authorities will allow the renminbi to appreciate modestly against the US dollar as capital account liberalisation moves ahead steadily. The current-account surplus will fall relative to GDP as import growth outstrips export expansion.
The apparent detention of a close associate of the CCP secretary for Chongqing, Bo Xilai, has highlighted the difficulty of forecasting the make-up of China's new leadership after the 2012-13 transition. Mr Bo had been tipped to become one of the most senior members of the new administration, but his promotion prospects will have been dented by the latest events.
The People's Bank of China (the central bank) reduced reserve requirements for banks in February: the second reduction in the current round of policy loosening. However, interest rates are expected to remain at their current level for much of 2012.
Key Topics Covered:
Overview
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability
Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch
Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations
Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation
Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2012-16: In focus: Capital account liberalisation is g
Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
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