DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e73dd1/south_africa_oil_a) has announced the addition of the "South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.
The BMI global oil supply and demand assumptions for 2011 and beyond have again been revisited, reflecting changes in the oil market and broader macroeconomic trends.
The second half of 2011 saw much of the market's focus shift from concerns over supply, following the loss of Libyan volumes in February, to worries over the demand outlook, as macroeconomic conditions worsened across Western and emerging economies. In our view, the focus on demand-side dynamics will continue into 2012 as macroeconomic weakness feeds through into oil demand. We have downgraded our 2011 US real GDP growth forecast to 1.6% and the medium-term outlook offers little hope for a strong recovery. We expect even slower growth in the eurozone - of around 1.8% - and we see mounting risks to growth in China.
There is already evidence that worsening macroeconomic conditions and demand destruction resulting from high oil prices have started to hit oil consumption. In the US, we now forecast that liquids consumption will have grown by just 0.57% in 2011, compared to a growth rate of 2.01% in 2010. With signs that a disappointing summer driving season in the US was carrying on into the autumn, risks to this forecast are firmly to the downside, with potential for demand to actually shrink. The demand outlook for 2012 is only slightly higher, again with risk to the downside if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate.
While growth has disappointed in Western economies, demand remained robust in emerging economies over H111, more than making up for slower-than-expected consumption in the West. China, of course, has been driving emerging market demand. However, government measures to counter inflation and address pollution concerns - by limiting car sales and raising fuel prices - look to be taking hold.
Companies Mentioned:
- PetroSA
- Sasol
- Engen
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Total
- BP
- Caltex
- Chesapeake/Statoil
- Rompco
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e73dd1/south_africa_oil_a