DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b448e5/russia_oil_and_gas) has announced the addition of the "Russia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.
A high level of ongoing investment will be required to keep Russian oil output close to recent record levels, putting pressure on the domestic industry and hindering global ambitions .Gazprom faces similar challenges in developing sufficient gas to meet European and, possibly, growing Asian demand. Revisions to the Russian tax and regulatory system will be required in order for Russia to meet its targets.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's Oil and Gas sector are:
- Russian oil production reached a post-soviet high of 10.34mn barrels per day (b/d) in October 2011, according to the country's energy ministry. This was up 0.4% month-on-month (m-o-m). Production rose owing to the implementation of a new tax structure, which involves a reduction in export duties on crude and certain refined products. Duty on Russian oil exports has been reduced by 4.3% to US$53.62 per barrel (bbl) from US$56.13 per bbl, according to a decree published in the Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper.
- The Vankor field averaged around 250,000b/d in 2010. Peak production capacity of 500,000b/d is expected by 2014. Lukoil has now brought into play its Yuri Korchagin field, one of the first to be developed in Russia's section of the Caspian Sea, with a peak capacity of 50,000b/d. TNK-BP is pushing ahead with further development of the Uvat oil project in the Tyumen region of West Siberia. The company expects to reach peak output of around 220,000b/d in 2015-2016. BMI is assuming average Russian production of 10.3mn b/d in 2011, with scope for an increase to 10.6mn b/d by 2016. The economy ministry's latest long-term production forecast sees output stable at 10.6mn b/d in 2015-2020.
- From 2011 onwards, Russian oil consumption can be expected to rise at a rate of up to 2.5% per annum, probably ahead of supply expansion. Oil consumption, which in 2011 is believed to have hit 2.80mn b/d, should therefore edge towards 3.17mn b/d by 2016 - providing export potential of 7.45mn b/d.
- With Russia having produced 622 bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2010, BMI's latest projections show output of almost 630bcm in 2011, rising to 723bcm by 2016 - dependent on growth in European demand. Gas output rose 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 546.8bcm in January-October 2011 and was up 4.7% y-o-y at 55.7bcm in October 2011, according to RosBusinessConsulting, which refers to data to data released by the energy ministry. Gas exports climbed 9% y-o-y to 158.9bcm in the first 10 months of 2011, but slid 14.5% in October to 14.1bcm. BMI is anticipating gas exports in excess of 200bcm by 2015/16, thanks to domestic consumption reaching almost 520bcm.
At time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90/bbl, falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.
Companies Mentioned:
- Gazprom
- Gazprom Neft
- Rosneft
- Lukoil
- TNK-BP
- Tatneft
- Total Imperial Energy
- Novatek
- Russneft
- Surgutneftegaz
- Sistema
- Bashneft
- Itera
- Royal Dutch Shell
- ExxonMobil
- Transneft
- Sakhalin Energy
- Wintershall
- Lundin Petroleum
- Irkutsk Oil Company
- Aladdin Oil & Gas
- PetroNeft
- Alliance Oil
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b448e5/russia_oil_and_gas