DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/9e31e1/hivaids_statistic) has announced the addition of the "HIV/AIDS Statistics in the Republic of South Africa (RSA): An Analysis of HIV/AIDS Mortality Comparing Death Counts, Surveillance Data, and Modeled Estimates" report to their offering.
Few people realize that the familiar HIV/AIDS global statistics are actually estimates. For example, UNAIDS estimated that the Republic of South Africa had 360,000 HIV/AIDS deaths in 1997. However, after tabulating all deaths for 1997, the Republic of South Africa attributed only 6,635 deaths to HIV/AIDS.
Such discrepancies are rarely noted. The familiar HIV/AIDS estimates are pasted into maps widely circulated by UNAIDS and the World Health Organization, and then published in medical, scientific, and public publications; displayed in professional slide shows; and broadcast on television and over the radio; therefore, these estimates prevail over public and professional perceptions. Death counts and surveillance reports, and the data-based profiles they embody, receive no such extensive distribution.
The Republic of South Africa (RSA) stands as the exemplar of these discrepancies. It is reputed to have the world's largest AIDS epidemic with an estimated 5.6 million people living (PLWH) with HIV/AIDS at most recent count. Such PLWH estimates, as with the estimates of death counts, are highly questionable.
Although, HIV/AIDS Statistics in the Republic of South Africa will clarify the discrepancies between surveillance data and modeled estimates by describing two common misunderstandings of HIV infection that contribute to poor modeling outcomes, this report is not a critique of these mathematical models. Rather, this report provides a service by presenting the actual surveillance data and comparing them with the WHO/UNAIDS estimates as well as placing all this information in context relative within the medical literature documenting HIV/AIDS epidemic.
HIV/AIDS Statistics in the Republic of South Africa presents raw numerical data on (1) HIV/AIDS deaths in the RSA, and (2) the AIDS cases detected by internal RSA disease surveillance systems. These data are compared with (3) UNAIDS/WHO estimates for AIDS deaths in the RSA, and (4) UNAIDS/WHO estimates for the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH). The surveillance data for the United States and (all of) Africa are also presented for purposes of comparison and to place the African and RSA data within appropriate epidemiological context. Also, several extrapolations are offered in which HIV/AIDS deaths allotted to varying percentages of all deaths in accordance with variant percentages theorized by several respected authors. Overall, these data span from 1981 to 2009.
The report also touches upon heterosexual HIV transmission rates, which would have to be impossibly high to create HIV prevalence rates reported among South Africans.
Key Topics Covered:
1. Introduction
2. Republic of South Africa (RSA) Death Notifications
3. Compare the Numbers
4. The First AIDS Cases in the RSA
5. Why are the Estimates so Escalated?
6. Tuberculosis & Other Killers
7. Discussion
8. Summary
9. References
10. Appendices
Author:
Chris Jennings, the principal of Health Alert Communications, was referred to as an independent think-tank on HIV/AIDS by the Amsterdam Post. In addition to conducting investigative research of the scientific and medical literature, Chris Jennings provides writing services to the pharmaceutical, medical, and diagnostic industries.
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