MIAMI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--U.S. trade is expected to rise to $4.4 trillion, up 62.3 percent, in the next 15 years as long-term commodity demand continues and highly competitive “Made in America” goods such as medical equipment, biopharmaceuticals and high-end manufactured products increasingly find their way into emerging economies, according to HSBC Trade Connections, a new quarterly global trade forecast released today by the leading bank for international business.
The inaugural HSBC Trade Connections forecast also finds:
- Overall global trade is projected to grow by $1 trillion year-on-year to 2015 despite the current global economic uncertainty
- U.S. share of world trade will fall to 9 percent from 11.3 percent (2010) by 2025 even as total U.S. trade value continues to rise
- China is expected to remain the U.S.’s most important trading partner until at least 2025
- China's share of world trade will reach 13 percent by 2025 overtaking the U.S. as top exporting nation
- Vietnam is the fastest growing major U.S. trading partner1
This U.S. and global trade snapshot encompassing the next five, 10 and 15 years is part of a broader look at global trade contained in HSBC Trade Connections forecast launched at HSBC’s Trade Summit in Hamburg, Germany and HSBC’s BUSINESS without BORDERS conference in Miami. The global forecasting effort spanning 36 countries is the first comprehensive exploration of the future opportunities for businesses operating internationally, combining trade data from around the world with lead indicators of world trade and macro-economic trend information.
The HSBC forecast outlines:
- The top 10 fastest growing exporting and importing nations globally
- Worldwide trading details on 36 key countries, including the United States
- Further detail on trade trends and corridors, including the growth of Brazil and intra-regional trade
“We commissioned the HSBC Trade Connections forecast to help our customers shape future strategy based on valuable, meaningful insight about where opportunities exist now and in the not-so-distant future,” said Mark Watkinson, Senior Executive Vice President, Head of Commercial Banking, HSBC - North America. “We see that now is the time for internationally-minded businesses to re-position themselves. The trend is very clear: international trade is set to significantly grow despite current economic uncertainty in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world. As growth has slowed domestically, HSBC is working with more and more forward-looking U.S.-based companies as they seek to capitalize on the opportunities and mitigate short-term risks of doing business in international markets.”
The HSBC Trade Connections forecast which highlights longer-term trends is buttressed by the latest companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index, also released today. The HSBC Trade Confidence Index highlights shorter-term trade trends and confidence levels and is the broadest semi-annual international survey of small to mid-sized businesses engaged in cross-border trade.
Overall, the latest HSBC Trade Confidence Index finds that despite a dip in global trade confidence, the majority of respondents (84 percent) anticipate either an increase in international trade, or consistent levels of international business activity, over the next six months. Businesses in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE are particularly optimistic about the immediate future, showing a positive uplift in confidence on the first half of 2011.
However, in the United States, the trade confidence survey, conducted between July and September 2011, shows that confidence amongst U.S. traders was at its lowest since the first survey was conducted in 2009. Less than half of U.S. respondents (49 percent) anticipate a slight or significant increase in trade volumes in the coming six months, a 13 percent drop from a similar period in 1H11.
Other noteworthy U.S. findings of the latest HSBC Trade Confidence Index include:
- Latin America, Greater China and Canada continue to be the largest trading partners for U.S. businesses both currently and during the next six months
- Surveyed U.S. traders reported Latin America as representing the best opportunity for business growth in the next six months, just edging out China, 27 percent to 26 percent
- The percentage of U.S. businesses that felt the global economy will decline over the next six months significantly rose to 49 percent, up 30 percent from the last survey conducted between February and March 2011
- A much lower percentage of global businesses surveyed in the same period (38 percent) similarly felt the global economy will decline during the next six months
For more than a century, HSBC, an institution founded in 1865 to finance the growing trade between China and Europe, has become widely recognized as a leading authority and trusted advisor on international trade and finance matters. HSBC has committed to facilitate $750 billion of world trade by 2013, working with international businesses to open up new markets and trade opportunities, by innovating how they are financing trade. HSBC Bank USA, N.A. is further assisting business through its BUSINESS without BORDERS initiative, a first-of-its-kind knowledge exchange for U.S.-based companies doing business internationally or aspiring to grow internationally, and through its partnership in the Export-Import Bank of the United States’ Global Access for Small Business initiative.
Notes to editors:
About the HSBC Trade Connections Trade Forecast
The Trade Forecast predicts how trade is going to develop over the next five, 10 and 15 years. It forecasts overall trade growth (exports, imports and total trade) globally, in global regions, and individual countries. Spanning 36 countries, it covers the top 10 sectors for exports and imports for each of these. The forecast has a unique approach to understanding the drivers of trade from a business perspective, informed by: trade trends, macroeconomic and market influences trade (for example GDP, oil prices, inflation, foreign direct investment), and business environment influences on trade (including regulation, demographics, access to capital and finance). The research has been commissioned by HSBC and undertaken by Delta Economics. The economic and business narratives stem from a broader documentary search that includes material from National Statistical Offices, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, economic blogs, the Economist Intelligence Unit, Bloomberg, the Financial Times and other professional and financial services news websites.
About the Trade Confidence Index
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index covers a total of 21 markets and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-month views of 6,390 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses. The survey was conducted by research company TNS between July and September 2011.
About HSBC Commercial Banking
Headquartered in London, HSBC is one of the largest banking and financial services organisations in the world. HSBC is one of the world's most international commercial banks with over three million customers in more than 60 markets. With 7,500 dedicated relationship managers, Commercial Banking contributed over US$4 billion in profit before tax to the Group in the half-year to 30 June 2011.
About HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
HSBC Bank USA, National Association, with total assets of $195.1 billion as of 30 June 2011 (US GAAP), serves around 4 million customers through its personal financial services, commercial banking, private banking, asset management, and global banking and markets segments. It operates more than 470 bank branches throughout the United States. There are over 370 in New York state as well as branches in Connecticut, Washington, D.C., Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, California, Delaware, Illinois, Oregon and Washington State. HSBC Bank USA, N.A. is the principal subsidiary of HSBC USA Inc., an indirect, wholly-owned subsidiary of HSBC North America Holdings Inc., one of the nation's largest bank holding companies by assets. HSBC Bank USA, N.A. is a member of the FDIC.
About HSBC Holdings plc
HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of the HSBC Group, is headquartered in London. The Group serves customers worldwide from around 7,500 offices in over 80 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, North and Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. With assets of US$2,691bn at 30 June 2011, HSBC is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organisations.
1 Major U.S. trading partners are those countries with measurable trade flow volumes in billions rather than millions of dollars.