DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b15cac/libya_oil_and_gas) has announced the addition of the "Libya Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011" report to their offering.
Libya Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's oil and gas industry.
The latest Libya Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.11% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 12.20% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$97.62/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
Libyan real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 3.2% in 2010. We are forecasting a 23.2% contraction in 2011 due to the effects of the civil war, although steady growth should resume in 2012 and increase to just under 5.0% by 2015. We expect oil demand to fall from an estimated 272,000b/d in 2010 to only 204,000b/d in 2011 before recovering to 250,000b/d by 2015. Gas production should reach 14bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 16.5bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to fall from 6.7bcm in 2010 to just 5.7bcm in 2011, but should increase again to 6.73bcm by 2015.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
Libya Energy Market Overview
Regional Market Overview
Business Environment Ratings
Risk Summary
Political
Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Companies featured
- National Oil Corporation (NOC)
- Eni North Africa
- Total Libya
- OMV of Libya
- Repsol YPF Libya
- Marathon Oil
- ConocoPhillips
- BP
- ExxonMobil
- Tatneft
- Occidental Petroleum
- BG Group
- Hess
- Woodside Petroleum
- Chevron
- Statoil
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Suncor
- PGNiG
- Gazprom
- RWE
- Verenex Energy
- Indian Oil/Oil India
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b15cac/libya_oil_and_gas