DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2d7c3b/mexico_shipping_re) has announced the addition of the "Mexico Shipping Report Q3 2011" report to their offering.
At present, Mexican economic activity looks strong, but with the consumer story not yet convincing and high oil prices likely to dampen demand for exports, we are happy to stick to what is now a below consensus real GDP growth projection of 4.1% for 2011. A recent survey of private sector economists conducted by Banamex showed average growth forecasts of 4.4% for this year, and even Mexico's finance ministry is now forecasting growth to hit 4.2-4.3%. Yet while there is certainly justification for a more optimistic sentiment, with the Mexican consumer yet to join the party and the oil price trajectory posing its own downside risks, for now we resist the temptation for another upward revision to BMI growth projections.
Consumer confidence has made a pretty solid recovery in recent months, but BMI still see a large divergence between external and domestic demand performance. This trend has been reflected in other sectors of the economy, with Wal-Mart de Mexico reporting a 1.1% y-o-y decline in same-store sales in March this year, after a tepid 1.8% expansion in February. With the bulk of new private sector credit still going to corporations rather than consumers, and remittances far off historic highs in nominal terms, at present there is little to like about the health of private consumption in Mexico.
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2011 is estimated to hit 6.55%, with average annual growth of 9.11% during the forecast period.
- Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2011 is estimated to hit 3.93%, with average annual growth of 5.71% during the forecast period.
- Port of Manzanillo container throughput growth in 2011 is estimated to hit 9.83%, with average annual growth of 12.97% during the forecast period.
- Port of Veracruz container throughput growth in 2011 is estimated to hit 5.37%, with average annual growth of 7.52% during the forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
Recovery Continues In Mexican Port Sector - BMI believes that 2011 should see Mexican ports continuing their recovery from 2009's global downturn, which saw container throughput at the country's main ports nosedive. The figures for container throughput at the country's ports for the first two months of 2011 show strong year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, reflecting the positive throughput figures BMI have seen in the US over the same period. BMI caution, however, that Mexico's economic dependency on the US means it is highly exposed to any slowdown in the recovery there.
But Downside Risks Remain - BMI caution that downside risks for the Mexican port sector remain. While the country's close proximity to the US, and its NAFTA membership, give it an important advantage when trading in the US market, the fact that Mexico's economy remains largely tied to economic prospects in the US is a cause for concern given the still cautious outlook for the US consumer over the next few years. Furthermore, Asian, especially Chinese, competition in the key US export market remains a worry for the sector.
Companies Mentioned:
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- APL
- CSAV
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- China Shipping (CSCL)
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2d7c3b/mexico_shipping_re.