DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1f62f3/sudan_defence_and) has announced the addition of the "Sudan Defence and Security Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
The Sudan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sudan's defence and security industry.
BMI estimates that Sudanese defence expenditure rose by 36.18% in 2010 to US$3.308bn, from US$2.469bn in 2009. This took defence spending to 20.3% of government expenditure, one of the highest levels in the world, though as defence outlay was only US$76.60 per capita, this also indicates that the Sudanese state has fewer financial resources than developed and indeed many emerging economies. Nonetheless, it is clear that Sudan has prioritised boosting its military instead of focusing resources on other areas, including its shaky infrastructure and social services. In 2011, we estimate that defence expenditure will rise 18.58% y-o-y to US$3.923bn, or US$89.00 per capita and 22.2% of GDP.
BMI forecasts that defence spending will rise substantially over the next decade, at double-figure nominal rates of around 16%-19%, and in constant price terms between 8.5% to 11%. This reflects both a trend of higher defence spending seen across Africa as armies modernise and expand, and also the continued risk of local, national and regional conflict for Sudan and East Africa as a whole. Defence spending is unlikely to be tapered down as a proportion of government expenditure, despite the pressing need for cash elsewhere. Indeed, we expect defence to rise to account for 31.7% of public spending by 2019.
By the end of the forecast period (2019) defence spending is expected to total US$14.070bn, or US$273.30 per head. This forecast could be affected on the downside by the region becoming more peaceful, including the peaceful and amicable division of Sudan - unlikely, as even if a largely conflict-free secession is achieved, tensions are likely to remain high and territorial disputes barely resolved, if at all. A drop in the oil price, and Sudan's revenues from oil exports, is more likely to affect spending.
The long-term viability of Sudan as a nation state is highly questionable. All eyes on conflict-related risks centre on a possible secession of the oil-rich South Sudan, after a referendum due to take place in the South in January 2011. By late December 2010, it seemed very probable that the poll would take place on the allotted date, though how smoothly' remained to be seen. The Khartoum government appears to be willing to let the vote happen, though the opportunities for disruption and rigging are likely to be extensive.
Sudan faces significant impediments to its long-term stability and continuation as a nation state, with a particular concentration of risks set to play out over the coming year. Going forward, the main risk is that the ruling party's continued authoritarian style and its reluctance to countenance a full democratisation will result in fresh conflict breaking out over the next year.
BMI considers renewed conflict a real possibility, in which case the strain on the region caused by humanitarian crisis is indeed likely to be severe. Exactly what the UN would do in practical terms should conflict break out is not clear, however.
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- Global Cyber Security Outlook
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Methodology
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