SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has assigned the following ratings on the Rancho California Water District Financing Authority, CA (the district) revenue bonds:
--Bank bond rating on adjustable rate refunding revenue bonds, series 2008B at 'AA+'.
The district expects to reoffer the bonds on March 23, 2011 in the weekly mode and expects to support the bonds with a direct-pay letter of credit to be issued by U.S. Bank. Fitch is assigning a bank bond rating to the bonds. A Fitch rating on the series that incorporates the support of the letter of credit will be provided closer to the date of pricing.
In addition, Fitch affirms the district's following unenhanced ratings:
--$364.6 million revenue bonds at 'AA+'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
RATING RATIONALE:
--The district's financial profile remains healthy despite declines in growth related connection fee revenue and a weakening of the local economy and assessed values. Further declines are projected to reach a low point in 2012.
--The district's liquidity position remains strong despite the use of a modest amount of the rate stabilization fund.
--The district's groundwater supply provides a competitive advantage in the region - the cost of its local water supply is lower than that of imported water from the Metropolitan Water District (MWD) that has mandated supply reductions in recent years.
--The district relies on significant revenues from property taxes and property assessments, both collected by the Riverside County Tax Collector.
--Capital needs are sizable and will add to the district's already high debt burden.
KEY RATING DRIVERS:
--Debt service coverage is projected to decline further in the next two years. Deterioration beyond the low point in the financial forecast of 1.6 times (x) in fiscal 2012, excluding connection fees, could result in downward rating pressure.
--Moderate annual rate increases in the range of 4% are projected. However, the district's revenue requirements may be higher than anticipated if growth in water sales and assessed value is slower to recover than the district's assumed levels, which are optimistic.
--Continued capital spending in line with historical expectations, without the funding anticipated from connection fees that have declined substantially, could result in additional debt at a utility with already high debt levels.
--The state's recent legislation that requires retail water demand be reduced 20% by 2020 will necessitate continued investment in efficiency programs and conservation.
SECURITY:
The bonds are issued by the Rancho California Water District Financing Authority and secured by installment payments made to the Rancho California Water District. The district's obligation to make installment payments from its net revenues is absolute and unconditional.
CREDIT SUMMARY:
The district provides water and wastewater services to a population of approximately 140,000 in southwest Riverside County, California. The service area encompasses nearly 100,000 acres and includes the City of Temecula, a portion of the City of Murrieta, and unincorporated areas of Riverside County. Until the recent recession and housing market decline, the service area had experienced rapid growth as a region that was once predominantly agricultural was developed into multiple master-planned developments given its location within the Inland Empire. Growth has slowed significantly in the past two years. Connection fee revenues have fallen from over $8 million in 2006 to around $1 million in 2010, reducing the district's available funds for capital improvements. Tax revenues held flat in fiscal 2009 and declined by around $2 million in fiscal 2010. Further tax revenue declines are expected in fiscal 2011, although not of the same magnitude of the 2010 decline.
The majority (58%) of the district's water supply is provided by the MWD, (water revenue bonds rated 'AAA' by Fitch), the regional wholesale provider of imported water to serve communities in the region. Due to critically dry hydrological conditions and reductions in its available supply, MWD implemented a mandatory 10% reduction in treated water deliveries to its members, including the district, effective July 1, 2009 as well as 30% reductions in agricultural deliveries implemented Jan. 1, 2008. However, despite its reliance on MWD, the district has water supply attributes that provide flexibility in both supply and cost. The remaining water supply is provided by the district's groundwater rights. The groundwater basin also provides additional flexibility in that the district may purchase lower cost 'recharge' water from MWD for storage in its basin (18% of total supply in 2010). Sizable agricultural demand (35% of total water usage) enables the district to purchase water from MWD at lower agricultural rates for those users.
In response to the anticipated lower water sales and potential decline in tax revenues, the district adopted a sizable 22% water rate increases effective in fiscal year 2010. The Board adopted a smaller increase of 4.7% in fiscal 2011 and plans to use a small amount (less than $1 million) of its rate stabilization fund in fiscal 2011. Rates are competitive, in part, because around 40% of the district's revenues are provided by tax receipts. The district receives a share of the county's 1% property tax revenues and collects its own assessments on land value within the district. These revenues are susceptible to assessed value declines, which occurred in fiscal 2010 and fiscal 2011. The district's delinquency rates have increased on its collections. The district does not participate in the county's teeter plan, taking the full risk and reward of collections.
Debt service coverage remained strong at 2.0x in fiscal 2010, although this is lower than historical levels that exceeded 2.5x when connection fee collections were higher. Debt service coverage is projected to decline to as low as 1.6x, excluding connection fees. While this level of debt service coverage is low for the rating, the district's debt service schedule is front-loaded with a sizable decline in debt service that occurs in fiscal 2016, at which time Fitch would anticipate the district would return to its practice of generating over 2.0x debt service coverage, which is integral to the rating.
Liquidity is healthy with $30 million in unrestricted reserves and $29 million in an O&M restricted reserve in fiscal 2010, representing 374 days operating cash. Debt levels are high at $4,462 per customer (based on the combined system) as compared to Fitch's median for the 'AA' category of $1,502 per customer. However, wealth levels in the district are above average and rates remain affordable, providing rate flexibility. Despite growth slowdown, the district still has capital needs, primarily related to the development of new water supply. The district is evaluating its capital needs at the current time, in light of lower than anticipated demand and slower development in the service territory. Capital spending was supported, in large part, by connection fee revenues which have declined. A replacement funding source will have to be secured or capital spending reduced to preserve the district's financial performance. Partially mitigating concerns about funding of capital needs is the district's approximately $150 million capital reserve that can be used to fund a portion of the district's long term needs; these monies are also available to boost operational funding, if needed.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria', dated Oct. 8, 2010;
--'Water and Sewer Revenue Bond Rating Guidelines', dated Aug. 6, 2008;
--'2011 Water and Wastewater Medians', dated Jan. 18, 2011;
--'2011 Outlook: Water and Wastewater Sector', dated Jan. 18, 2011.
For information on Build America Bonds, visit www.fitchratings.com/BABs.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=564565
Water and Sewer Revenue Bond Rating Guidelines
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=395918
2011 Water and Wastewater Medians
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=593285
2011 Outlook: Water and Wastewater Sector
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=593286
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.