DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/549f3e/saudi_arabia_oil_a) has announced the addition of the "Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
The Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's oil and gas industry.
This latest Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 38.81% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing a dominant 38.36% of supply. Middle East regional oil use of 4.98mn b/d in 2001 is forecast to rise to 7.40mn b/d in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 24.96mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.22mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 17.85mn b/d. This total will ease to an estimated 17.55mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume an estimated 391bcm in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Saudi Arabia is expected to consume an estimated 20.12% of the regions gas in 2010, with its market share forecast to be 18.43% in 2015. It will contribute an estimated 16.84% to 2010 regional gas production and could account for 14.51% of supply by 2015.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
BMIs assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) rise of 24.7%. The global gas/oil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase on 2009. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. BMI puts the 2010 average naphtha price at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year.
We forecast Saudi Arabian real GDP growing by 2.6% in 2010 and expect 3.3% average annual GDP growth from 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 2.79mn b/d in 2010 to 3.38mn b/d in 2015, representing up to 3.0% annual growth beyond 2009 and broadly matching our underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Saudi Aramco is wholly responsible for oil and liquids production, which is forecast to rise from an estimated 9.88mn b/d in 2010 to 10.45mn b/d by 2015. There is no foreign involvement in the upstream oil segment, although international oil companies (IOCs) could have a role in future gas field development and are major players in refining and petrochemicals. Gas production should reach 89bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 79bcm in 2010. Consumption should match the trend, leaving Saudi Arabia with no import requirement or export potential during the period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production of 15.4%, with volumes rising steadily to 11.40mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 40.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% a year towards the end of the period and the country using 3.91mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 79bcm to 126bcm by the end of the period. Demand growth of 60.7% from 2010-2020 will provide a balanced market throughout the period. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Saudi Arabia now shares seventh place with Oman in BMIs composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country is ranked a surprising last place, behind Kuwait, in BMIs updated upstream ratings. It clearly has an unrivalled oil resource and production position, but the lack of upstream opportunities mean the country is stuck firmly at the bottom of the table. It is six points behind Kuwait and shows few signs of having the ability to challenge its rival.
Saudi Arabia is in the upper half of the league table in BMIs downstream ratings, with a few high scores but further progress up the rankings is unlikely. It is tied for second with Iran, thanks largely to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and nominal GDP. Healthy country risk factors help bolster the overall score.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Business Environment Ratings Macroeconomic Outlook
Competitive Landscape Company Monitor
Latest Developments
Long-Term Oil And Gas Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
- Saudi Aramco
- Shell Saudi Arabia
- ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
- Chevron
- Total
- Eni
- ConocoPhillips
- BP
- Repsol YPF
- Lukoil
- Sinopec
- Sumitomo
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/549f3e/saudi_arabia_oil_a