DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/cfbdaa/thailand_shipping) has announced the addition of the "Thailand Shipping Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
Thailand Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's shipping industry.
The plans of several carmakers announced in late November 2010 suggest that Thailand and India are becoming the favourite bases for the production and export of small cars and trucks. BMI believes Thailand's 'eco car' programme gives it a clear advantage in attracting investment, while India's low-cost production and geographical position have already made it a global assembly base for some companies. To the extent that Thailand's 'eco car' production and exports grow, so too will associated demand for shipping services. BMI believes that when comparing the major production bases of the ASEAN region Thailand easily stands out for its level of government support, which has made the industry move with consumer sentiment. After being the world's second largest pick-up truck market after the US for several years, the decline in truck demand forced the Thai government to switch the focus of the industry towards small, fuel efficient cars. The sector's export performance for 2010, largely fuelled by small car export projects, prompted BMI to forecast shipments of 870,687 units in 2010, up from 535,565 in 2009.
The outlook for the Thai economy in 2011 is for moderate growth, presenting the freight transport sector with a mixed picture, including a number of positives. One of these is that the country's damaging political deadlock, which has scared away many investors in recent years, may be easing. The ruling Democrat coalition did well by winning four out of five constituencies in a by-election in December. This was followed by the launch of a welfare scheme and minimum wage legislation, suggesting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is seeking to reconcile the economic interests of the urban middle classes and the rural poor, and may be preparing to launch an early call to elections in 2011.
Political risk will remain high, but there is a chance the markets will be reassured by these developments. On the economic front private consumption will remain a key driver of growth, but weaker global demand, lower-than-hoped-for levels of foreign investment, and a sharp rise in imports will all act as constraining factors. As a result of our analysis, BMI estimates 2010 GDP growth of 7.5% in Thailand (following on from a contraction of 2.5% in 2009 when the country was hit by the global recession). Our outlook for 2011 is for economic growth to lose steam against the headwinds of a 'double dip' slowdown across the industrialised economies. Thai growth will ease back to 3.6%, and then gather a little more pace to 4.0% in 2012. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 4.0% per annum, which, while a fairly subdued rate compared to the years before 2009, situates Thailand as one of the average performers in the Asia region.
According to BMI estimates, the port of Laem Chabang managed to defy the downturn in 2009, posting a volume increase of 4.1% y-o-y and handling 46.2mn tonnes of cargo. In 2010 we expected the port to have seen more vigorous volume growth, with a gain of 11.5% to 51.47mn tonnes. For 2011 we are predicting that the pace will slow, although remaining in high single digits: we see 8.1% growth to 55.641mn tonnes. The port of Bangkok, according to data from the port authorities, posted a decrease of 12.4% y-o-y in 2009, with the facility handling just 15.6mn tonnes of cargo. However, in 2010, we estimated a recovery with 6.6% volume growth to 16.60mn tonnes. In 2011 we predict 5.4% growth to 17.49mn tonnes.
Using the same ports as examples for container throughput BMI notes that in 2009 box volumes at the port of Laem Chabang fell by an estimated 10% and Bangkok's throughput declined by 10.3%. The port of Laem Chabang handled an estimated 4.62mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2009, while Bangkok handled 1.31mn TEUS. In 2010, we estimate year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in throughput for both ports.
Laem Chabang's box traffic is estimated to have increased by 10.0% to 5.084mn TEUs, with throughput at Bangkok estimated to have grown by 7.3% to 1.41mn TEU. Consistent with the slower GDP growth we are predicting for 2011, we see Laem Chabang box traffic growing 8.0% to 5.490mn TEUs, while container throughput at Bangkok will grow 6.2% to 1.492mn TEUs. Thailand's total trade fell abruptly by an estimated 16.3% in 2009, on the back of the global recession. Imports were worst affected, falling by 20.2% y-o-y. Trade picked up equally sharply in 2010, with BMI's Country Risk team estimating growth of 16.5%. For 2011 we are now projecting much lower growth at 1.8% - almost a standstill year.
Companies Mentioned:
- A.P. MLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/cfbdaa/thailand_shipping