DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e28bc8/algeria_oil_and_ga) has announced the addition of the "Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
The Algeria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Algeria's oil and gas industry.
The latest Algeria Oil & Gas Report from the publishers forecasts that the country will account for 9.42% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 18.21% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. In 2010, Algeria's share of regional gas supply is an estimated 37.82%, remaining around this level to 2015.
The country's share of demand in 2010 is an estimated 22.29%, with 19.95% predicted by 2015. For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gas oil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous years level.
Algerias real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 5% in 2010, with forecast average annual growth in 2010-2015 put at 4.3%. We expect estimated oil demand of 341,000b/d in 2010 to rise by up to 4% per annum to 415,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Sonatrach dominates the industry, operating in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs), and accounts for 60% of the country's oil output. Thanks largely to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.86mn b/d in 2010 to 2.20mn b/d in 2015, with exports heading towards 1.79mn b/d.
The countrys OPEC membership and assigned production quota could frustrate volume growth ambitions. Gas production of an estimated 83bcm in 2010 should reach 122bcm by 2015. Consumption of an estimated 28bcm in 2010 is expected to rise to 35bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 87bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting an increase in Algerian oil and gas liquids production of 40.2%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 1.89mn b/d in 2010 to 2.6mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 48.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 505,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 140bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 65.9% between 2010 and 2020, export potential should rise from 55.5bcm to 94.4bcm, in the form of LNG and by pipeline. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Algeria shares first place with South Africa in the publishers composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It holds sixth place in the updated upstream Business Environment ratings, sandwiched between Angola and Cameroon. The countrys score benefits from healthy oil and gas reserves, a large number of non-state companies active in the upstream sector and decent licensing terms. Algeria is near the top of the league table in BMIs updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked second behind only Egypt, thanks to high scores for gas consumption, nominal GDP, likely refining capacity expansion and oil demand growth.
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- Algeria Energy Market Overview
- Global Oil Market Review
- Global Oil Market Outlook
- Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
- Regional Market Overview
- Business Environment Ratings
- Risk Summary
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Competitive Landscape
- Company Monitor
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Forecasts
- Glossary Of Terms
- BMI Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
- Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
- Anadarko Algeria
- Eni Algeria Production
- BP Algeria
- Total
- Repsol Argelia
- BHP Petroleum (Algerie)
- CEPSA
- Statoil Algeria
- Hess Summary
- Maersk Oil Summary
- Royal Dutch Shell Summary
- ConocoPhillips Summary
- BG Group and Gulf Keystone Petroleum Summary
- Talisman Energy Summary
- Gazprom Summary
- Others Summary
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e28bc8/algeria_oil_and_ga