DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/31e3b9/argentina_agribusi) has announced the addition of the "Argentina Agribusiness Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
Business Monitor International's Argentina Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Argentina's agribusiness service.
BMI View: Like neighboring Brazil, export opportunities will be a key driver of agricultural production out to 2014/15, particularly for grains, rice and sugar. However, a key risk to this is the country's significantly rising food price inflation, which could force the government to try and stymie exports, as has been done in the beef sector in the past. The government is in the process of taking positive steps to change grain seed laws and increase the country's biofuel blending limit, which could lead to greater production over the medium term. This could help repair its relationship with the country's farmers and allow the country to better capitalize on its strong production potential.
Key Views
- Sorghum production growth to 2014/15: 21% to 4.67mn tonnes. Production will continue to be driven by crop substitution, as farmers convert acreage previously sown with corn and wheat to sorghum owing to its hardy, drought-resistant qualities.
- Corn consumption growth to 2014: 14% to 7.87mn tonnes. This will mainly be driven by the livestock sector, which is forecast to grow, significantly in the case of poultry.
- Rice production growth to 2014: 25% to 1.15mn tonnes. This will largely come as a result of export opportunities, primarily to neighboring countries. The sector will also be aided by the fact that it has fewer production restrictions than other grains.
- 2010 Real GDP Growth: 8% (up from 1% in 2009; predicted to average 3.7% from now until 2014).
- Consumer Price Inflation: 16% y-o-y in October 2010 (up from 4% y-o-y in October 2009). Industry Developments As droughts and government interventions have contributed to soaring beef prices in recent years, per capita consumption has been in decline, and in 2011 it is forecast to reach its lowest level in 50 years.
Although high prices should stimulate production over the medium term, we expect beef consumption to continue declining slowly as consumers switch to poultry. As the decrease in beef consumption will certainly aid greater poultry consumption, the consumption declines could have unintended consequences.
With production expected to increase as farmers rebuild stocks on the back of high prices and consumers switching to poultry due to pricing differences, Argentina could return to being one of the world's largest beef exporters over the medium term.
We will likely revise up its long-term soybean production forecasts if the Argentine government passes a new seed law designed to encourage farmers to use new soy seed varieties. The law, designed to increase the use of genetically modified (GM) seeds from the current 35% of farmers to more than 80%, is meant to reduce production costs while allowing farmers to keep more revenues from their output. For Argentina, one of the world's largest soybean producers, the potential for new output could allow it to pass Brazil and become the world's second largest soybean exporter. However, given that Brazil also intends to use GM seeds, we believe Argentina is likely to remain the world's third largest exporter.
A continued rebound in Argentine corn production is starting to play out, as the Buenos Aires Grains exchange sees a 4% increase in the area planted to corn for the 2010/11 season, which begins with harvesting in March 2011. Although there are concerns about the effects of La Nia, which could dry out the crops and lower yields, the current rains have sped up plantings, which heretofore had been driven by rising corn prices. The increase in corn production should enable Argentina, the world's second largest corn exporter, to loosen a global corn market which is currently in deficit."
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Argentina Sugar Outlook
- Argentina Livestock Outlook
- Argentina Dairy Outlook
- Argentina Grains Outlook
- Argentina Rice Outlook
- Argentina Soybean Outlook
- Competitive Landscape
- Commodity Price Analysis
- Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- BMI Forecast Modelling
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/31e3b9/argentina_agribusi