DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2153a6/bahrain_oil_and_ga) has announced the addition of the "Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011" report to their offering.
The Bahrain Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's oil and gas industry.
In this report, we forecast that Bahrain will account for 0.56% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.33% of supply. Middle East regional oil use of 4.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 7.40mn b/d in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and will average an estimated 24.96mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.22mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will ease to an estimated 17.55mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Bahrain's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 3.38%, while its share of production is put at 2.83%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.65%, with the country accounting for 2.72% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous years level.
Bahrain's real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 1.3% in 2010, with average annual growth of 4.8% forecast in 2010-2015. Consumption of oil is set to rise with the moderate growth of the economy, reaching a maximum of 49,000b/d by 2015. The state accounts for all domestic oil and gas production, as well as the refining and distribution segment. International oil company (IOC) involvement is somewhat limited. Thanks to modest resource potential and few large-scale IOC upstream ventures, crude and liquids output is now averaging approximately 55,000b/d, with potential to reach 90,000b/d by 2015. Gas output is set to increase from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010 to 16.7bcm by 2015, with imports of 1.0bcm required by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Bahrain oil production of 81.8%, with crude volumes doubling to 100,000b/d before the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 38.1%, with growth at an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 58,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to climb towards 18bcm by 2019/20. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 79.1%, this provides an import requirement of around 5.9bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bahrain now shares fifth place with Iran in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country this quarter retains fifth place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, but is now five points above Iran. It has held this position in spite of its very modest oil and gas reserves, but thanks to an improving production growth outlook. There are low reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and modest non-state involvement in the upstream segment. The country's risk environment is very sound, but this may prove insufficient to help Bahrain move further up the league table. Bahrain now shares fifth place with Qatar in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with few high scores and no further progress up the rankings likely. It scores 48 points, above Oman, thanks to modest refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and the privatisation trend. The growth prospects for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity are reasonable, offsetting the pedestrian increase in GDP per capita.
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Bahrain Energy Market Overview
- Global Oil Market Review
- Global Oil Market Outlook
- Business Environment
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity
- Company Monitor
- Bahrain Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
- Glossary Of Terms
- Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
- Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco)
- Bahrain National Gas Company (Banagas)
- Caltex Bahrain
- Occidental Petroleum
- Gulf Petrochemical Industries
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2153a6/bahrain_oil_and_ga.